L.N. Gumilyov Eurasian National University, a dissertation defense for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy (PhD) by Makhmetova Nadira Amanzholkyzy on the topic «Regional features of the demographic development of the Republic of Kazakhstan in the context of socio-cultural modernization (on the example of East Kazakhstan)» to the educational program «8D02202 – History».
The dissertation was carried out at the Department of «History of Kazakhstan and Socio-Humanitarian Disciplines" of the Higher School of Humanities, S. Amanzholov East Kazakhstan University.
The language of defense is kazakh
Official reviewers:
Ualtaeva Altyn Slyamkaidarovna – Candidate of Historical Sciences, Associate Professor, Leading Researcher at the Ch.Ch. Valikhanov Institute of History and Ethnology (Almaty, Republic of Kazakhstan);
Sabdanbekova Zamzagul Ablyashevna – Candidate of Historical Sciences, Associate Professor of the Higher School of Humanities NAO «Pavlodar Pedagogical University named after Аlkеy Margulan» (Pavlodar, Republic of Kazakhstan);
Temporary members of the Dissertation Council:
Shakhaman Zamzagul Baiyekekyzy – Candidate of Historical Sciences, Associate Professor of the Department of History of Kazakhstan, Akhmet Baitursynuly Kostanay Regional University (Kostanay, Republic of Kazakhstan).
Kapyshev Ardak Kairzhanovich – Candidate of Historical Sciences, Associate Professor, Vice-Rector for Socio-Cultural Development, Sh. Ualikhanov Kokshetau University (Kokshetau, Republic of Kazakhstan).
Omurova Zhamyikat Orozbekovna – Doctor of Historical Sciences, Acting Head of the Department of Regional Studies and Kyrgyz Studies, Faculty of History and Regional Studies, Jusup Balasagyn Kyrgyz University (Bishkek, Kyrgyz Republic);
Scientific advisors:
Aubakirova Zhanna Sakenovna – Candidate of Historical Sciences, Associate Professor of the Department of History of Kazakhstan and Social and Humanitarian Disciplines, S. Amanzholov East Kazakhstan University (Ust-Kamenogorsk, Republic of Kazakhstan);
Yulia Alexandrovna Lysenko – Doctor of Historical Sciences, Professor , of the Department of Oriental Studies, (Barnaul, Russian Federation).
The defense will take place on October 10, 2025, at 02:30 PM in the Dissertation Council for the training direction «8D022 – Humanities» in the educational program «8D02202 – History» of L.N. Gumilyov Eurasian National University. The defense meeting is planned to be held online.
Link: https://surl.lu/nsqbit
Address: Astana, str. А.Pushkin, 11, 324 auditorium
Abstract (English): The dissertation of Nadira Amanzholkyzy Makhmetova “Regional features of the demographic development of the Republic of Kazakhstan in the context of socio-cultural modernization (on the example of East Kazakhstan)” submitted for the degree of Degree of the Doctor of Philosophy (PhD) in the educational program: «8D02202 – History». The dissertation is devoted to the analysis of demographic processes in the context of sociocultural modernization in Kazakhstan, with an emphasis on the regional characteristics of East Kazakhstan in the late 20th and early 21st centuries. The study is based on the examination of population size and ethnic composition, age structure, birth and mortality rates, natural increase, migration, and contemporary reproductive attitudes.
Relevance of the Study. At the current stage of development of the Republic of Kazakhstan, intensive modernization processes are taking place, encompassing, among other areas, the socio-cultural sphere. It is important to emphasize that these transformations are not homogeneous; instead, they unfold through diverse scenarios of socio-demographic and socio-cultural changes, each of which constitutes an independent object of scientific analysis. A significant factor in these processes is their pronounced regional specificity. In this context, East Kazakhstan emerges as a representative and scientifically significant territory for comprehensive research.
For an extended historical period, demographic processes in Kazakhstan were shaped predominantly under the influence of external factors. At present, however, there is a clear shift toward the predominance of internal determinants of demographic development. The main trajectories of demographic dynamics are concentrated within the country and are largely determined by the cultural and social characteristics of the Kazakh ethnos. For the first time in its modern history, the demographic system of Kazakhstan is functioning on a sovereign basis.
The current demographic situation in the Republic of Kazakhstan demonstrates substantial differences from global trends. East Kazakhstan, in particular, is of notable scientific interest, since its demographic structure stands in sharp contrast both to other regions of the country and to global models. Furthermore, the region itself is characterized by distinct intra-territorial differentiation, conditioned by the ethnic composition of its subregions.
The research focuses on the socio-cultural and demographic development of the population of East Kazakhstan under the conditions of modernization transformations. The choice of this region is not accidental: East Kazakhstan is representative in the context of nationwide demographic and socio-cultural trends.
The relevance of the dissertation is defined by the need for a comprehensive analysis of the dynamics of socio-demographic changes in the region during the modernization period, the identification of patterns of population reproduction, and the assessment of the influence of socio-cultural factors on these processes.
The Aim of the Dissertation Research. The purpose of the dissertation is to conduct a theoretical and methodological analysis of demographic processes in the context of sociocultural modernization in Kazakhstan, as well as to comprehensively study the regional features of demographic development in East Kazakhstan in the late 20th and early 21st centuries.
Within this framework, the research aims to provide a comprehensive assessment of the demographic situation in the region through the study of population size and ethnic composition dynamics, changes in age structure, indicators of fertility, mortality, and natural increase, migration processes, and contemporary reproductive attitudes.
To achieve the stated aim, the following research objectives were defined:
- To analyze the theoretical foundations and methodological approaches to the study of demographic processes;
- To examine the content and essence of sociocultural modernization in Kazakhstan and to determine its influence on demographic development;
- To review the historical retrospective of population formation, settlement systems, and the dynamics of population size and ethnic composition in East Kazakhstan during the 1950s–1980s;
- To identify the regional features of Kazakhstan’s demographic development in the late 20th and early 21st centuries using East Kazakhstan as a case study;
- To study the processes of fertility, mortality, and natural population growth in East Kazakhstan in the late 20th and early 21st centuries;
- To investigate the dynamics of migration movements in the region during the given period;
- To identify the characteristics of reproductive attitudes of the population of East Kazakhstan in the context of sociocultural modernization through sociological research.
Documentary sources of the dissertation are grouped into four categories: normative legal acts, archival documents, statistical data from population censuses of 1959, 1970, 1979, 1989, 1999, 2009, and 2021 along with current statistics, and materials from sociological research.
In 2021–2023, as part of the dissertation research, a sociological study was conducted titled “Regional Features of the Reproductive Behavior of Urban Kazakh Women: Trends and Prospects.”
Chronological and Territorial Framework of the Study. The subject of the dissertation covers the period of Kazakhstan’s independence and contemporary regional demographic processes, using East Kazakhstan as a case study. However, in order to present a more complete historical picture, a retrospective analysis was conducted starting from the mid-20th century. This approach made it possible to most fully reveal the interconnection based on the historical and dialectical principles of systemacity and determinism.
Between 1959 and 1989, East Kazakhstan consisted of two regions — East Kazakhstan and Semipalatinsk. Accordingly, for this period, the analysis was carried out separately for each region. From 1999 to 2021, the analysis was conducted on the united East Kazakhstan region.
Object of the Study. The object of the research is the population of East Kazakhstan, including its structure — ethnic, age, and territorial — as well as demographic processes such as fertility, mortality, natural increase, and migration.
Additional Object. An additional object of the research is the reproductive attitudes of urban Kazakh women, as they most vividly reflect the outcomes of ongoing sociocultural changes in society. Kazakhs have become the main ethnic component of the population structure both of Kazakhstan as a whole and of its eastern region, and today they largely determine the demographic trends.
Subject of the Study. The subject of the research is the process of sociocultural modernization, within which the dynamics and transformation of demographic processes are analyzed, including fertility, mortality, natural and migration movements of the population, as well as changes in ethnic and age structures.
Research Hypothesis:
- Under the conditions of sociocultural modernization, a transformation of the main demographic processes is taking place. These processes are most vividly manifested in East Kazakhstan, whose demographic development reflects the majority of nationwide trends.
- In the context of accelerated urbanization, there is an interaction between different types of reproductive behavior — traditional, modern, and transitional forms. The outcome of this interaction is a diversity of reproductive behaviors, which often acquire a competitive and, at times, value-based character. This diversity of reproductive attitudes and practices is observed across all regions of the country, including East Kazakhstan. The sociocultural and demographic future of Kazakhstan will depend on which set of values ultimately prevails.
Theoretical and Methodological Foundations of the Dissertation.
Demographic development is examined through the lens of the concepts of French historians and sociologists. According to F. Braudel’s theory, modernization does not have clearly defined temporal boundaries: the inertia of past epochs always persists and significantly influences the present. Consequently, in the current era, Soviet legacies and traditional elements coexist alongside the impact of various other factors. All of these dimensions function in parallel within contemporary society. On the one hand, modernization processes are evident, while on the other, traditional values remain and, in some regions, even intensify. The application of Braudel’s multilayered concept of historical time makes it possible to interpret sociocultural modernization in Kazakhstani society not merely as the result of political initiatives and programs, but as a complex social process shaped by long-standing cultural structures and mentalities that have developed over centuries. This perspective helps to reveal both the structural and cultural constraints and potentials of modernization, moving away from its explanation solely in terms of events and reforms. It also provides a basis for the comprehensive analysis of sociocultural modernization, taking into account the relationship between short-term reforms and long-term principles: what can be transformed rapidly, and what can only evolve gradually.
Alongside this, the theoretical framework of the dissertation is strongly informed by P. Bourdieu’s concept. His key categories—habitus, field, and the various forms of capital (social, cultural, economic, symbolic)—serve as valuable methodological tools for analyzing the dynamics of demographic processes under the conditions of sociocultural modernization in Kazakhstan. Different social groups (defined by ethnicity, level of education, degree of urbanization, and regional specificity) possess distinct habitus, which shape their attitudes toward family size, the age of marriage, the role of women in society, and fertility regulation. For instance, in the southern regions and in rural areas of East Kazakhstan, traditional habitus conducive to high fertility remain prevalent, whereas in urban areas, particularly among populations with higher education levels, a declining fertility trend is evident. Analyzing demographic processes through Bourdieu’s theoretical lens makes it possible to uncover the transformation of habitus among different social groups and their relationship with changes in fertility, migration, and family structure. Bourdieu’s approach demonstrates that modernization is neither universal nor linear; rather, it unfolds within the context of unequal distribution of resources across social fields and forms of capital. His concept emphasizes that all socio-economic determinants are mediated by cultural factors, since culture defines the system of life values and meanings. The economic system may assume digital, industrial, or post-industrial forms, yet modernization processes are fundamentally rooted in cultural foundations.
The methodological basis of the research is the theory of modernization, which examines the transition from traditional to modern society. Within its framework, the study identifies the features of ethnically differentiated processes of demographic development in Kazakhstan since the mid-20th century and traces their transformation in both the post-Soviet and contemporary periods.
Main Findings of the Study:
- The main trends of demographic development in East Kazakhstan have been identified: relatively high population density, lower fertility compared to other regions, high mortality and population aging, and intensive migration.
- If, at the end of the 20th century, the demographic specifics of East Kazakhstan were determined by the historically established settlement system and the ratio of Kazakh and Russian populations, then at present all demographic trends are shaped by the Kazakh ethnos, which has become the numerical majority both in Kazakhstan and in its regions.
- The causes of sociocultural modernization are linked to processes that develop at different speeds and in different directions. The older generation born in the 1960s and the younger generation born in the 2000s represent two demographic potentials. Each contributes to sociocultural modernization in Kazakhstan: the older generation ensures stability and continuity of traditions, while the younger generation plays a decisive role in introducing innovative values and global cultural trends. These intergenerational differences reflect the multifaceted and uneven nature of modernization processes in society.
- The demographic development of East Kazakhstan generally reflects the regional demographic processes of the entire country. All nationwide demographic trends are present in the region: ethnic shifts in the population structure (with Kazakhs predominating over Russians and other ethnic groups), the coexistence of different types of reproductive behavior, varying levels and rates of natural increase, and high migration potential. The northern part of East Kazakhstan, where Slavic ethnic groups are concentrated, reflects the demographic features of North-Eastern and Central Kazakhstan, while the southern part, predominantly Kazakh and largely rural, demonstrates characteristics typical of Southern and Western regions of Kazakhstan. Therefore, East Kazakhstan represents a unique region that encapsulates the demographic profile of different parts of the country.
- The sociological study revealed that the contemporary urban social environment in Kazakhstan constitutes a space of competition and interaction between two types of values: traditional and modernized. This is driven by high population mobility resulting from rapid urbanization. However, the infrastructural and socio-economic resources of cities (primarily the labor market) do not match the rapidly growing population. “New urban residents,” bearers of traditional values, face difficulties in quickly integrating into an industrial and post-industrial way of life. In the urban sociocultural context, clear signs of ruralization and even archaization of everyday social practices in the sphere of reproductive behavior are observed.
- Sociocultural processes demonstrate regional variations. In the western regions, archaization is more pronounced, whereas in the south, modernization progresses more slowly but steadily. In the north, center, and east of the country, where more modernized reproductive behavior models had developed earlier, there is simultaneously a revival of traditional values and an increase in fertility. However, this regional process does not ensure stable population growth in East Kazakhstan, as younger generations are “washed out” due to internal migration.
- Contemporary demographic development in Kazakhstan is accompanied by new socio-economic and sociocultural opportunities in the context of urbanization, but also by the emergence of new socio-demographic risks reflecting the influence of global and regional factors.
- Significant regional imbalances and risks should attract the attention of state authorities. It is necessary to develop regional demographic development programs for the republic, taking into account the demographic characteristics and sociocultural specificities of each region.
Approbation of the Work. The main theses, conclusions, and results of the dissertation are reflected in 9 articles published in domestic and international scientific journals. Among them, 3 articles were published in journals recommended by the Committee for Quality Assurance in the Sphere of Education and Science of the Ministry of Education and Science of the Republic of Kazakhstan, 2 articles in journals indexed in the international database Web of Science, and 4 articles in the proceedings of international conferences.
The scientific results presented in the dissertation were obtained within the framework of grant-funded scientific projects of the Ministry of Science and Higher Education of the Republic of Kazakhstan, aimed at comprehensively studying relevant problems of sociocultural transformation and demographic development of Kazakhstani society under modernization:
- AP09260600 “Regional Features of the Reproductive Behavior of Urban Kazakh Women: Trends and Prospects”;
- AP19676895 “Kazakhs as the Demographic Potential of Kazakhstan: Retrospective and Development Prospects.”
In the process of implementing these projects, a theoretical, methodological, and empirical foundation was formed, which made it possible to comprehensively test all the obtained results. This, in turn, provided the basis for presenting the dissertation as a final scientific product within the framework of the grant project AP26198933 “East Kazakhstan: Trajectories of Socio-Demographic and Sociocultural Transformation of the Urban Space of Semey and Ust-Kamenogorsk.”
Conclusion of the Research Ethics Committee
Defense of the dissertation: https://youtu.be/O8uvCzxO_-U
