Defense of the dissertation of Мусина Гульнара Сартаевна for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy (PhD) in the specialty «6D050600 - Экономика»
L.N. Gumilyov Eurasian National University, a dissertation defense for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy (PhD) by Мусина Гульнара Сартаевна on the topic «'Forecasting and production planning in the agricultural units in conditions of uncertainty (on the materials of crop production in North Kazakhstan region)» in the field of «6D050600 – Экономика».
The dissertation was carried out at the «Economy» of L.N. Gumilyov Eurasian National University.
The language of defense is russian
Reviewers:
Жанабаева Жанар Каирбековна - Candidate of Science, Associate Professor, docent
Бельгибаева Анаргуль Сарсенбаевна - Candidate of Science, Assistant Professor, docent
Temporary members of the Dissertation Committee:
Ауелбекова Айгуль Курбанбаевна - Candidate of Science, Associate Professor (acting)
Мизанбекова Салима Каспиевна - Doctor of Science, Professor, professor
Смагулова Шолпан Асылхановна - Doctor of Science, Professor, professor
Тлесова Айгуль Бакытжановна - Candidate of Science, Associate Professor, docent
Утепкалиева Кансулу Мусаевна - Candidate of Science, Assistant Professor, docent
Кочербаева Айнур Анатольевна - Doctor of Science, Professor
Academic Advisors:
1. Kusainov Talgat Amanzholovich – Doctor of Economic Sciences, Professor, Department of Accounting and Finance, S. Seifullin Kazakh Agrotechnical Research University (Astana, Republic of Kazakhstan).
Stukach Viktor Fedorovich – Doctor of Economic Sciences, Professor, Department of Management and Marketing, Omsk State Agrarian University (Omsk, Russian Federation).
The defense will take place on November 28, 2023, at 10:00 AM in the Dissertation Council for the training direction «8D041 – %!s(*string=0xc00a3f6f10)» in the specialty «6D050600 – Экономика» of L.N. Gumilyov Eurasian National University. The defense meeting is planned to be held online.
Link: онлайн трансляция на платформе Microsoft Teams по ссылке: https://clck.ru/36DxWD
Address: 28 ноября 2023 года в 10.00 часов в ауд. 517 (УЛК) Евразийского национального университета имени Л.Н. Гумилева в смешанном режиме (онлайн и оффлайн)
Abstract (English): ABSTRACT to the thesis of Mussina Gulnara Sartayevna on the topic: 'Forecasting and production planning in the agricultural units in conditions of uncertainty (on the materials of crop production in North Kazakhstan region)' submitted for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy (Ph.D.) majoring in 6D050600 - 'Economics' The purpose of this thesis research is to develop methodological tools for forecasting, analysis, and selection of output plans in crop production in agricultural units of Northern Kazakhstan in the context of uncertainty, ensuring persistently high incomes from entrepreneurial activity. Research objectives: investigating the essence of the concepts of uncertainty and risk, methods of their assessment and measurement; studying diversification as a rational strategy for agricultural entrepreneurship; summarizing the world experience in forecasting, analysis, and making planning decisions in the context of uncertainty; comprehensive analysis of current trends and challenges in crop production development in the Northern region of Kazakhstan; developing the methodological techniques for representing uncertainty in tools for forecasting the level of economic indicators in crop production (yield, price, income), taking into account covariate properties in the context of crops cultivated in agricultural units; developing the methodological tools for analyzing the effectiveness of production plans and choosing the most rational plan on the basis of the 'effect-risk' criterion under uncertainty and with taking into account the entrepreneur's attitude to risk; calculating the optimal structure and combination of crops for the farms of the North Kazakhstan oblast under uncertainty and developing the appropriate recommendations; developing a risk model for the analysis and selection of the most rational strategy for the sale of crop production in the period 'from harvest to harvest' under uncertainty. Research methods. Research methodology: principles of system analysis. Research methods: 1) methods and procedures of statistical analysis for studying the current trends and challenges in crop production development in the North Kazakhstan oblast; 2) econometric approach for quantitative assessment and analysis of the interconnection and forecasting in the objects under study; 3) mathematical modeling for the analysis, optimization, and selection of the most rational production plan, sales strategy of crop products on farms under uncertainty. The main provisions submitted for defense: 1) the author's interpretation of the diversification of production in crop production, taking into account the restrictions imposed by the peculiarities of agriculture and uncertainty; 2) forecasting the economic indicators of crop production on farms under uncertainty; 3) planning of the structure and combination of crops on farms based on the model under uncertainty; 4) modeling of the decision-making for adaptive management of the crop selling processes under uncertainty; 5) recommendations on the strategy of crop production diversification on farms in the North Kazakhstan oblast under uncertainty. The description of the main research results: 1) the theoretical foundations of forecasting and production planning in agriculture under uncertainty have evolved and deepened. The author's interpretation of crop production diversification as a process of optimizing the use of limited resources is given. Optimization involves the choice of such a structure and combination of cultures that provide the maximum possible expected level of total income at the amount of economic risk established and accepted by the entrepreneur; 2) forecasting and planning of the whole-farm income in diversified farms have some peculiarities related to the presence and nature of stochastic relations in yields and prices across crops, as well as the uncertainty in the production and market conditions of the planning year. The proposed method of forecasting in crop production uses the principles of expert evaluation as well as the probability analysis of historical data and assumes a preliminary adjustment of the data matrix on yield and prices for trends and inflation. The calculation matrix includes projected revenue values for products depending on natural and market conditions; at the same time, correlation and other stochastic relations inherent in the matrix of initial data are preserved. The resulting income matrix is then used to plan the structure and combination of crops on farms based on the risk model; 3) the task of choosing the optimal strategy of combination and structure of crops on farms has been modeled in two ways: the first option is a model in which the utility function and risk aversion index are used to analyze and select the preferred options for the combination and structure of crops under uncertainty. The solution of the problem modeled in this way gives the desired plan, which already reflects the individual's attitude to risk. We believe that this method is useful and effective in forecasting and analyzing the consequences of the implementation of certain economic and agricultural programs of the government. The time and resources spent on the elaboration of the problem are fully justified by the scale and social effect of the programs; in the context of emerging market economies, a risk model that uses a modification of the maximin criterion can become an appropriate instrument for analyzing and choosing the preferred economic plans. The task is to choose a plan that provides an income of not less than a predetermined level and at the same time maximizes the total expected income. The method of accounting for uncertainty is based on using the standard deviation as a risk measure. The disadvantage of this method is that it does not allow the entrepreneur's attitude to risk to be incorporated directly into the model. The model allows for the development of a series of solutions with the estimation of the expected income and its possible variation. Then the entrepreneur chooses the most acceptable solution for him/her. At the same time, this risk assessment method has a number of advantages, the main of which is a clear and understandable interpretation of the results, simplicity and reliability of the computer implementation of the process of finding the optimal solution to the problem; 4) the proposed model for choosing solutions for adaptive management of the crop selling processes under uncertainty is based on making several possible scenarios for the movement of product prices in the planning period with the assessment of probability of each scenario. The possible prices and the probability of scenarios are determined based on the analysis of historical data and expert forecasts. It is convenient for experts to calculate the expected prices for scenarios and their probabilistic properties using a triangular distribution. The model of preliminary analysis of plan options based on imitation of sales processes using the corresponding 'What if' model allows for automatic calculation of the effectiveness of solution options and the dimensions of the associated economic risk. At the same time, the main condition for the effectiveness and usefulness of a management decision is the reliability of the initial information. Moreover, effectively organized information supply involves constant monitoring of the product market behavior, replenishment, and adjustment of the database to use for preparing a solution. The model assumes the adjustment of the sales strategy in the period from harvest to harvest over time and as new updated data on the state of the market becomes available. The model is implemented in the MS Excel environment and does not require special knowledge from the entrepreneur to master and apply in business practice; 5) the production structure and selection of crops for the cultivation on farms in the Northern Kazakhstan require their optimization. In the conditions of the 'ordinary chernozems' subzone, which includes the bulk of agricultural land in the North Kazakhstan oblast, there is competition between cereals and oilseeds, the nature of which depends on the amount of risk acceptable to the entrepreneur. The results of optimizing the structure and combination of crops with and without subsidies indicate that the structure of crops depends more on the specified amount of acceptable risk and less on the presence or absence of subsidies. Thereby, the greater the amount of acceptable risk, the greater the amount of total expected income, and vice versa. Therefore, when choosing the best production plan, it is recommended, in addition to profitability and risk, to take into account the attitude of the entrepreneur to the risky consequences of the decisions taken. In this regard, it is important to understand that the entrepreneur's attitude to risk is driven mainly by the current financial circumstances of the farm, its liabilities to creditors, employees, and other priority liabilities. The substantiation of the novelty and importance of the results obtained: 1) the specificity is justified and the interpretation of production diversification in crop industry is given, taking into account the restrictions imposed by the peculiarities of agricultural production and the agricultural market. The proposed interpretation allows for consideration of agricultural diversification within the framework of a more general problem of optimal use of limited resources; 2) methodological techniques and procedures have been developed to represent uncertainty in the tools for forecasting economic indicators of crop production (yield, price, income), taking into account the covariance properties of agricultural crops. The forecast income matrix is used to plan and optimize the structure and combination of costs in crop production farms under uncertainty based on the risk model; 3) a methodological tool (model) has been developed for analyzing the effectiveness and choosing the most rational production plan with use of the 'effect-risk' criterion and taking into account the entrepreneur's attitude to risk. The importance of the developed models is to provide agricultural entrepreneurs with a tool for choosing the optimal combination and structure of crops following rapidly changing production and market conditions, increasing the level of income and their sustainability in the agricultural sector, rational allocation of production and optimal distribution of economic resources in the industry; 4) a model has been developed to choose solutions for adaptive management of the crop selling processes and analyze and choose the most rational sales strategy under uncertainty. The proposed computerized risk model makes it possible to improve the quality and efficiency of decisions made, allows automated optimization calculations and the selection of effective sales plans; 5) the recommendations on the strategy of crop production diversification in the economic systems of the North Kazakhstan oblast under uncertainty have been developed. The recommendations contribute to ensuring sustainably high incomes of farms due to an effective combination of crops, optimization of the structure of crops and more rational use of limited agricultural resources. The compliance with the directions of scientific development or state programs. This thesis research was carried out within the framework of regulatory documents, such as the President's Address to the People of Kazakhstan 'To a competitive Kazakhstan, competitive economy, competitive nation', the National Project for the Development of the agro-industrial complex of the Republic of Kazakhstan for 2021-2025. The description of the candidate's contribution to the preparation of each publication. The provisions and conclusions obtained during the thesis research are reflected in one foreign publication indexed in the Scopus database, three journals recommended by the Committee for Quality Assurance in Science and Higher Education of the Ministry of Science and Higher Education of the Republic of Kazakhstan, six other publications and materials of international scientific conferences. There is one certificate of the state registration of rights to the copyright object. Out of 10 scientific publications on the topic of the dissertation, 4 have been published by the author alone. The personal contribution of the applicant is expressed in the independent organization and implementation of all stages of the study, the preparation of publications based on the results of the study and testing in other forms
Conclusion of the Research Ethics Committee
Defense of the dissertation: https://youtu.be/d5YMpRMl4AI?si=-VUzkKLdulqvgOk5
