L.N. Gumilyov Eurasian National University, a dissertation defense for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy (PhD) by Кожиков Марат Талгатович on the topic «Scientific and methodological foundations for calculating CO2 emissions within the greenhouse gas emissions trading system of the Republic of Kazakhstan» to the educational program «8D05208 – Ecology and nature management».
The dissertation was carried out at the «Management and Engineering in environmental protection education department» of L.N. Gumilyov Eurasian National University.
The language of defense is russian
Official reviewers:
Bayandy Ibragimovich Dikhanbaev - Doctor of Technical Sciences, Associate Professor, Department of Thermal Power Engineering, S. Seifullin Kazakh Agrotechnical Research University (Astana, Republic of Kazakhstan).
Baurzhan Nogaibaevich Korganbaev - Doctor of Technical Sciences, Professor, Department of Technological Machines and Equipment, M. Auezov South Kazakhstan University (Shymkent, Republic of Kazakhstan).
Temporary members of the Dissertation Council:
Kanaуev Ashimkhan Toktasynovich – Doctor of Biological Sciences, Professor of the Department of Biodiversity and Bioresources of the Faculty of Biology and Biotechnology of the Al-Farabi Kazakh National University (Almaty, Republic of Kazakhstan).
Zhumabek Kubeevich Bakhov - Doctor of Biological Sciences, Doctor of Technical Sciences, Professor, Department of Ecology, S. Seifullin Kazakh Agrotechnical Research University (Astana, Republic of Kazakhstan).
Kateryna Romanova - Candidate of Technical Sciences, Associate Professor of Department of Thermal and Alternative Energy; Deputy Director for International Relations, Educational and Research Institute of Nuclear and Thermal Energy, Igor Sikorsky Kyiv Polytechnic Institute, National Technical University of Ukraine (Kyiv, Ukraine).
Scientific advisors:
Baurzhan Aueskhanovich Kapsalyamov – Doctor of Technical Sciences, Professor of the department «Management and Engineering in the Sphere of Environmental Protection» ENU named after L.N. Gumilyov (Astana, Republic of Kazakhstan).
Ievgen Volodymyrovych Khlobystov - Doctor of Economic Sciences, Professor, Department of Ecology, National University of Kyiv-Mohyla Academy (Kyiv, Ukraine).
The defense will take place on March 13, 2026, at 03:00 PM in the Dissertation Council for the training direction «8D052 – Environment» in the specialty «8D05208 – Ecology and nature management» of L.N. Gumilyov Eurasian National University. The defense meeting is planned to be held online.
Link: https://twi.kz/GGC3j
Address: Astana, st. Kazhymukhan, 13, Educational building No. 3, room. No. 333.
Abstract (English): Relevance of the Study. Global climate change driven by the increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions remains one of the key challenges of contemporary development. Kazakhstan, having ratified the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, the Kyoto Protocol, and the Paris Agreement, has undertaken commitments to reduce GHG emissions by 15–25% by 2030 compared to the 1990 level. At the same time, the energy sector—predominantly based on coal-fired generation—accounts for more than two thirds of the national carbon footprint. Under these conditions, the effective functioning of the emissions trading system (ETS) and the fulfillment of international commitments directly depend on the accurate calculation of emissions from the electricity sector. A key instrument for such calculations is the national CO₂ emission factor for the electricity grid, which allows determination of actual emissions per unit of electricity generated or consumed. Its value is critical for several reasons: it serves as the basis for calculating emissions from electricity consumption by enterprises within the ETS, particularly for assessing indirect CO₂ emissions associated with product manufacturing using grid electricity; it is used to substantiate renewable energy and energy efficiency projects, as well as to access international climate mechanisms; it ensures comparability and verifiability of national data with international practice; it serves as a tool for assessing decarbonization effects and for shaping long-term energy policy at the state level. At present, Kazakhstan lacks a unified, scientifically substantiated grid emission factor for CO₂. The application of averaged international or regional coefficients does not reflect the actual characteristics of the national fuel and energy balance and leads to distortions in emission inventories, thereby reducing the effectiveness of climate policy and limiting the country’s participation in international carbon markets. This issue is particularly relevant for Kazakhstan due to significant regional differences in the structure of electricity generation. Thus, the development of a national CO₂ emission factor for Kazakhstan’s electricity grid, based on an internationally recognized methodology and adapted to national conditions, constitutes an актуальная scientific and applied task. It will enable the formation of a reliable basis for calculations within the national GHG ETS, improve the quality of the national GHG inventory, create incentives for renewable energy and energy efficiency projects, and strengthen Kazakhstan’s position in international climate negotiations and carbon trading. The object of the dissertation research comprises internationally recognized scientific and methodological approaches and tools for calculating CO₂ emission factors of electricity grids, as well as the scientific aspects of adapting international methodologies for application within the GHG emissions trading system of the Republic of Kazakhstan. The aim of the research is to apply the methodological framework of CDM Tool 07 to calculate reliable CO₂ emission factors for the national electricity grid of the Republic of Kazakhstan and to develop a computational model forming a scientifically substantiated database of emission factors for the GHG ETS. To achieve this aim, the following objectives were set: 1. To substantiate the necessity of calculating a national CO₂ emission factor for Kazakhstan’s electricity grid, taking into account ETS requirements, Kazakhstan’s international obligations, and the specific features of the national fuel and energy complex. 2. To develop a scientifically grounded approach to the selection and adaptation of international methodologies for calculating grid-specific CO₂ emission factors based on multifactor comparative analysis. 3. To apply and adapt the CDM Tool 07 methodology for determining national CO₂ emission factors of Kazakhstan’s electricity grid. 4. To develop a computational model tailored to the conditions of Kazakhstan’s energy sector and to demonstrate the practical applicability of the obtained results within the GHG ETS using a real project case. 5. To develop recommendations for improving the operation of the GHG ETS in the electricity sector.Обоснование новизны и важности полученных результатов. Scientific Novelty and Significance of the Results. The dissertation represents the first comprehensive academic scientific and methodological study in the Republic of Kazakhstan aimed at developing a methodology for calculating specific CO₂ emission factors for the electricity grid within the context of the national GHG ETS. The following original results were obtained: CO₂ emission factors for electricity in Kazakhstan’s grid were calculated for both the existing and new generation fleets. A quantitative assessment of grid CO₂ emission factors was carried out for the three power system zones of Kazakhstan. A combined CO₂ emission factor was calculated based on national statistics and reporting data from energy enterprises, resulting in unique emission values relevant for assessing the decarbonization potential of renewable energy projects. A computational model was developed and proposed that enables the calculation and regular updating of CO₂ emission factors (OM, BM, CM) at both national and zonal levels. The scientific significance of the study lies in the fact that, for the first time in Kazakhstan, a computational model has been developed and proposed that establishes a methodological foundation for calculating national CO₂ emission factors for the electricity grid, both for the country as a whole and for its three energy zones. This tool demonstrates scientific reliability, as it is based on a verified international calculation procedure and utilizes actual data from energy enterprises. The model enables scenario-based energy efficiency assessments, regional analyses to identify more and less carbon-intensive regions and industries, calculation of economic effects of energy efficiency and climate measures, and serves as an indicator of the low-carbon performance of the electricity sector. The computational model and derived emission factors have fundamental scientific value, as they complement international methodological approaches, demonstrate the feasibility of national adaptation, and provide a foundation for further research in carbon footprint modeling, decarbonization potential assessment, and improvement of monitoring, reporting, and verification (MRV) systems for GHG emissions. Thus, the research contributes to the development of climate regulation theory and substantiates new directions for integrating national methodologies into international emissions accounting practices. The practical significance of the research is determined by the applied value of the calculated CO₂ emission factors for Kazakhstan’s emissions trading system. Their application improves the accuracy of emission calculations at both corporate and national levels, enables the establishment of benchmarks for quota allocation, and stimulates renewable energy and energy efficiency projects. In addition, national emission factors provide a basis for accounting indirect electricity-related emissions in export-oriented sectors, which is particularly important in the context of the introduction of the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM). The practical utility also lies in the potential application of the developed computational model by government authorities, energy companies, auditors, and research centers in the implementation of climate policy and decarbonization programs. Research Methods. The study employs a systems approach based on a comprehensive analysis of electricity generation and CO₂ emissions accounting processes in the energy sector, considering institutional, technological, and economic factors. Methods of scientific analysis and synthesis, statistical data processing techniques, and elements of mathematical modeling were used to calculate specific CO₂ emission factors and adapt them to the conditions of Kazakhstan. Main Provisions Submitted for Defense: 1. A scientifically substantiated approach to selecting and adapting international methodologies for calculating CO₂ emission factors was proposed, including multifactor comparative analysis, which identified CDM Tool 07 as the most appropriate methodology for Kazakhstan. 2. A scientifically grounded methodology for calculating CO₂ emission factors for Kazakhstan’s electricity grid based on CDM Tool 07 was applied and adapted through integration of international standards with national generation structure characteristics. 3. For the first time in Kazakhstan, a computational model for the regular revision of electricity grid CO₂ emission factors was proposed and implemented, ensuring open publication of all input data and algorithms. Verified empirical zonal and national CO₂ emission factors were obtained: Northern zone: OM = 1.0171 tCO₂/MWh (existing generation), BM = 1.2316 tCO₂/MWh (new generation), CM = 1.0708 tCO₂/MWh; Southern zone: OM = 0.5482 tCO₂/MWh (existing generation), BM = 0.7051 tCO₂/MWh (new generation), CM = 0.5874 tCO₂/MWh; Western zone: OM = 0.8617 tCO₂/MWh (existing generation), BM = 0.9102 tCO₂/MWh (new generation), CM = 0.9331 tCO₂/MWh; National level: OM = 0.9343 tCO₂/MWh (existing generation), BM = 0.9830 tCO₂/MWh (new generation), CM = 0.9465 tCO₂/MWh. 4. The practical significance of the developed emission factors was demonstrated through calculation of economic effects and comparative analysis with international data. 5. Recommendations for improving the operation of Kazakhstan’s GHG ETS were developed. Author’s Contribution to Publications. The main results obtained within the dissertation research were published in scientific journals and conference proceedings. Articles in international peer-reviewed journals indexed in Web of Science Core Collection and Scopus: 1. Greenhouse Gas Trading Scheme in the Republic of Kazakhstan – Seven Years from Its Creation, Problems and Solutions // Journal of Environmental Management and Tourism. – 2022. – Vol. 5(61). – pp. 1321–1338. 2. Community-Centric Carbon Reduction Initiatives and Their Impact on Grid Emission Factors: A Case Study in Kazakhstan // Polish Journal of Environmental Studies. – 2024. – Vol. 33, No. 5. – pp. 1–11. Articles in journals recommended by the authorized body: 3. Transition from Conventional Energy to Renewable Energy Sources (RES): Assessment of the Contribution of RES to Greenhouse Gas Emission Reduction Using the Yereymentau Wind Power Plant as a Case Study // Bulletin of Al-Farabi KazNU. Ecology Series. – 2022. – No. 72(3). – pp. 33–40. 4. Potential and Prospects for Integrating the Transport Sector of the Republic of Kazakhstan into the Emissions Trading System // Bulletin of Al-Farabi KazNU. Ecology Series. – 2024. – No. 4(81). 5. Carbon Footprint Assessment within the Life Cycle Assessment of Electricity in the Republic of Kazakhstan // Combustion and Plasma Chemistry. – 2024. – No. 22. – pp. 99–107. Conference proceedings: 6. Greenhouse Gas Emissions in the Republic of Kazakhstan and Prospects for Their Reduction // Proceedings of the XV International Scientific Conference of Students and Young Scientists “GYLYM JÁNE BILIM – 2020”, Section 3 Natural Sciences, L.N. Gumilyov Eurasian National University, Nur-Sultan, pp. 914–917. Jointly with B.A. Kapsalyamov, the doctoral candidate developed the Methodology for Calculating Specific CO₂ Emission Factors for the Energy Sector of the Republic of Kazakhstan in the Training of Qualified Specialists under Educational Programs 6B05208/7M05208 “Ecology and Environmental Management”, approved by the Department of Environmental Management and Engineering, L.N. Gumilyov Eurasian National University.
Conclusion of the Research Ethics Committee
Defense of the dissertation: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QdvRxH40mjA
