Defense of the dissertation of Панғалиев Ербол Махамбетұлы for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy (PhD) in the specialty «8D05208 - Ecology and nature management»
L.N. Gumilyov Eurasian National University, a dissertation defense for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy (PhD) by Панғалиев Ербол Махамбетұлы on the topic «Management and Engineering in the Sphere of Environmental Protection» to the educational program «8D05208 – Ecology and nature management».
The dissertation was carried out at the «Management and Engineering in environmental protection education department» of L.N. Gumilyov Eurasian National University.
The language of defense is kazakh
Official reviewers:
Канаев Ашимхан Токтасынович - Doctor of Science, Professor
АУБАКИРОВА БАХЫТ НУПБАЕВНА - Doctor of Philosophy (PhD)
Temporary members of the Dissertation Committee:
Бахов Жумабек Кубеевич - Doctor of Science, Professor
Дускаев Касым Коянбаевич - Candidate of Science, Assistant Professor, professor
Gamze Yildiz - Doctor of Philosophy (PhD), Assistant Professor
Scientific advisors:
Akbayeva Lyailya Khamidullaevna – Candidate of Biological Sciences, acting Professor of the department “Management and Engineering in the Sphere of Environmental Protection” ENU named after L.N. Gumilyov (Republic of Kazakhstan, Astana)
Emin Atasoy – PhD, Professor of the Faculty of Education Bursa Uludag University (Turkiye, Bursa)
The defense will take place on December 23, 2024, at 03:00 PM in the Dissertation Council for the training direction «8D052 – Environment» in the specialty «8D05208 – Ecology and nature management» of L.N. Gumilyov Eurasian National University. The defense meeting is planned to be held online.
Link: http://surl.li/zczvci
Address: Астана қаласы, Қажымұқан көшесі, 13, №3 оқу-әкімшілік ғимараттың № 333 аудиториясы
Abstract (English): Relevance of the research topic. In recent decades, the problem of water resources in the Republic of Kazakhstan has become particularly acute in light of the impending water deficit, climate change, geographical location, and anthropogenic impact. The solution of water problems in Kazakhstan is recognized as one of the most important priorities in the Strategy "Kazakhstan 2050". The United Nations predicts a global deficit of water resources in the next ten years. By 2030, the world's water shortage may reach 40%. The hydrographic network and the number of water bodies across most of the Republic of Kazakhstan are relatively scarce, making it essential to monitor the total surface area of water bodies and the dynamics of changes in their morphological characteristics. Until now, hydrologists and ecologists have primarily been concerned with changes in relatively large water bodies and rivers. However, the condition of medium and small lakes has not received sufficient attention. At the same time, lakes have a significant impact on the microclimate, the well-being of adjacent ecosystems, and are valuable for recreation and economic activities. The territory of Central Kazakhstan, which currently includes mainly the Karaganda and Ulytau regions, holds strategic importance for the development of agriculture and heavy industry across the Republic of Kazakhstan. However, recent years have seen a range of issues arising in the region due to climatic phenomena, particularly floods, abnormal droughts, and the depletion of water resources. These issues have led to a reduction in arable land and decreased grain crop yields. The water resource problem in the region is also intensified by their role in supporting natural ecosystems and ensuring the preservation of biodiversity. The Karaganda and Ulytau regions cover 428000 km² and are considered low-lake territories within the Republic of Kazakhstan. There are 0.27 km² of water surface per 100 km². On average, the area has around 1910 lakes with a total area of 926 km². Of these, 1779 lakes are smaller than 1 km², accounting for 14% of the total water surface area. Medium and small lakes experience shorter water cycles, are more prone to eutrophication, and dry up faster. Their disappearance often goes unrecorded in hydrological registers. The region's water resources form a dynamic system that depends on numerous ecological factors and hydrological processes. The primary source of lake replenishment is winter precipitation. Lakes and rivers in the area are prone to periods of severe low-water levels and eutrophication. The hydrographic river network of the territory of Central Kazakhstan is sparse. At the same time, there are a large number of temporary watercourses that exist only during the period of snow melting. Also characteristic is the presence of a large number of lake bowls that are filled with water for a short time after the spring flood. And permanent lakes experience constant fluctuations in water level and significant changes in the area of the water surface. Overall, the geographic and climatic conditions in this region have historically been unfavorable for the surface water regime, particularly due to the sharply continental climate, uneven precipitation and arid conditions. Climate change forecasts for the Central Regions of the Republic of Kazakhstan are ambiguous and there is a risk of a water catastrophe. According to some sources, by the middle of the 21st century, precipitation in Kazakhstan is expected to increase in winter (by 9%) and spring (by 5%), as well as an increase in the intensity and variability of precipitation. Some models predict an increase in annual precipitation by 2% by 2030, by 4% by 2050 and by 5% by 2085, while other models predict a decrease in precipitation by an average of 11% by 2085. According to some experts, if greenhouse gas emissions increase by 2085, the humid zone will shift 250-300 km to the north. In the latter case, all northern regions of Kazakhstan may turn into a semi-desert region. Changes in climate indicators in the Central part of Kazakhstan may negatively affect the water resources of small lakes in this region, since most small lakes in this region are fed by melted snow and rainwater. In the conditions of increasing anthropogenic influence of man on ecosystems, the natural evolution of lakes can be greatly transformed and lead to the disappearance of water bodies. The evolution of lakes includes successive geological, hydrometric, hydrological, hydrochemical, hydrobiological changes and is a broader phenomenon compared to succession. In the arid conditions of Central Kazakhstan, these processes are aggravated by the fact that most lakes are of suffusion-karst and deflationary origin, have weak surface runoff, relatively shallow depth, and also in many lakes long cycles of high-water and low-water periods are recorded. Hypothesis. Due to the influence of a whole complex of environmental factors, significant changes in the indicators of surface waters in Central Kazakhstan could have occurred in recent decades. This should primarily affect the number of lakes, the total area of water, the total volume of water mass, water balance, the general ecological state, features, and features of the water cycles of local lakes. It is important to promptly identify all possible problems of surface waters to determine the current situation and identify trends in their development. Purpose of the study was to establish the morpho-ecological state of the lakes of Central Kazakhstan in light of their evolutionary development. Research objectives: 1. Study of the dynamics of climate change in the Karaganda and Ulytau regions based on meteorological indicators. 2. Conduct a comparative analysis of a number of morphometric indicators of medium and small lakes in the Karaganda and Ulytau regions over the past half century; 3. Assess the water balance of lakes and rivers in the Karaganda and Ulytau regions. 4. Study of the ecological state of Lake Bolshoy Sarykol, as the most characteristic reservoir of the Karaganda region with typical environmental factors, hydrological conditions, and species diversity. 5. Provide an integrated analysis of changes in the lakes of Central Kazakhstan. The scientific novelty of the research. For the first time, a hydrological description of small and medium-sized lakes in Central Kazakhstan was given in light of climate changes that have occurred over the past 80 years. A condition was discovered where evaporation in the water catchment area exceeds water inflow in the water balance and at present the groundwater reserve is not fully restored. In addition, methodological approaches to assessing the state of lakes were proposed: 1) A new grouping of lakes by water surface area and water volume, which facilitates the review of water bodies in the territory and allows for the analysis of their hydrological parameters; 2) The total annual water balance was calculated for the entire territory of the Karaganda and Ulytau regions based on average annual indicators; 3) For the first time, the point-weight method was used for an integrated analysis of changes in lakes. Also, measurements of morphometric parameters of most lakes in central Kazakhstan have not been carried out or analyzed for a long time, until these studies. The object of study. For morphometric studies, 109 lakes, 12 rivers and adjacent basin areas of the Karaganda and Ulytau regions were studied. The lakes in the study area are located on the outskirts of the region, mainly fed by surface runoff (mainly melted snow water) and groundwater. Most of the lakes are concentrated in the humid northern and western regions of the territory. For a general ecological characterization, the Bolshoy Sarykol Lake was studied in more detail. It is located in the south of the Bukhar-Zhyrau district of the Karaganda region, 60 km southwest of the city of Karaganda (1 km southwest of the village of Suyuksu N 49° 28' 40", E 73° 42' 17"). The lake is used for fishing and is also used for watering livestock. The scientific novelty of the research. The results of the study are important for the classification and typification of data on water resources of Central Kazakhstan, for the development of scientific models of balanced nature management and the formation of a scientific base for ensuring the optimal functioning of the region's lake systems. The work has great practical significance as a scientific substantiation and interpretation of data from environmental monitoring of surface waters and can be used as a guide for ecologists, hydrologists and water management specialists. The results of the work can be useful for developing measures and recommendations aimed at the rational use and protection of water resources. The obtained data are important for water management, fishery and recreational purposes. The accumulated geoinformation material can be used in the creation of cadastral (or ecological) passports by regional departments of ecology and natural resources. Research results. 1. The climate of the Karaganda and Ulytau regions has undergone significant changes in both temperature and precipitation trends from 1940 to 2020. Due to the warming of the winter season, the climate of the region has become significantly warmer, and the amount of annual precipitation has also increased. From 1940 to 2020, there has been an increase in the average annual temperature by 1.1 °C. The average annual precipitation has increased by 145 mm, with precipitation in the cold months by 100 mm and in the warm months by 45 mm. 2. Currently, the lakes of Central Kazakhstan are at the high-water stage of the multi-year water cycle. In relatively small lakes up to 4 km2, the total area has changed by 51.9% since 1968, the volume has increased by 22.02%. While in medium and larger lakes (with an area of 4 to 20 km2 or more), there is a reliable increase in area by 42.9%, an increase in volume by 15.7%. As of 1968, there were a total of 34 dried-up lakes, while in 2020 there were 8 dried-up lakes. 3. In the water balance, the annual runoff of the rivers flowing into the lakes of the Karaganda region and the rivers flowing beyond the territory is relatively small - 1.98 and 6.42% due to the sparse hydrographic network. The largest share falls on annual precipitation 69.21%, underground sources 28.81%, active transpiration of water by plants from a large area during the growing season 74.59% and evaporation from the soil is 13.41%. At the same time, intensive evaporation by plants, from the soil occurs due to high air temperature in the warm months, high wind speed and low air humidity in the Karaganda and Ulytau regions. Total evaporation from the soil surface and transpiration of water by plants exceeds precipitation, which indicates that most of the lakes are fed by groundwater. Thus, at the present stage, the involvement of groundwater in the balance is not fully balanced by the influx of water, which will soon lead to low water levels in lakes in the region. 4. Ecological characteristics of typical lakes of Karaganda and Ulytau regions (using the example of Bolshoy Sarykol Lake): lakes of sodium-hydrocarbonate-chloride type, neutral slightly alkaline environment. The water in the lakes is mainly slightly brackish, salinization and active sulfate reduction processes are observed in the bottom sediments. The lakes are of mesotrophic trophicity type and β-mesosaprobic eutrophication type, favorable for fishery reservoirs. Hydrobionts are represented by widespread species of planktonic and benthic organisms and nekton. 5. The total impact of processes accelerating the degradation of lakes exceeds the total impact of processes slowing down degradation. So, at this stage, despite the high-water period, in many lakes, in general, processes of accelerating eutrophication are occurring. Personal contribution of the author to the work. The applicant carried out his dissertation work at the laboratory of water resources at the Department of "Management and Engineering in the field of environmental protection" of the ENU named after L.N. Gumilyov from 2019 to 2022. During this period, he personally carried out a number of morphometric measurements of lakes in the Karaganda and Ulytau regions, sampling and processing samples. The dissertation candidate independently analyzed the long-term dynamics of climatic indicators and constructed a trend of temperatures and precipitation, calculated the water balance for the study area, constructed maps of the hydrographic network and the current location of lakes, took part in determining the species diversity of phytoplankton, zooplankton and zoobenthos in Lake Bolshoy Sarykol. The dissertation candidate independently conducted a general analysis of the data, interpretations and conclusions. Approbation of work. Selected results were published in scientific journals: Bulletin of L.N. Gumilyov Eurasian National University. Series Biological Sciences. – 2022. – No. 4 (141); Bulletin of L.N. Gumilyov Eurasian National University. Series Biological Sciences. – 2023. – No. 4 (145); KazNU Bulletin. Ecological series. – 2023. – No. 4(77); Polish environmental studies journal. – 2024. – Vol. 33, Issue 1. – P. 781-801 (ISSN 1230-1485). Publications. The main content of the dissertation is reflected in 4 published works, of which article was published in a scientific journal included in the Scopus database, 3 articles in republican scientific journals from the list of the Committee for Control in Education and Science of the Republic of Kazakhstan. Publication structure. The dissertation work contains normative references, designations and abbreviations, introduction, literature review, an object and methods of research, discussion of results, conclusion, 218 references and 3 appendices. The research work consists of 105 pages, expressed in 19 tables and 11 formulas and supported by 14 figures.
Conclusion of the Research Ethics Committee
Defense of the dissertation: https://youtu.be/h556BAyz7H0
