Defense of the dissertation of Seilkhan Balaussa for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy (PhD) in the educational program «8D03105 - Regional Studies»
L.N. Gumilyov Eurasian National University, a dissertation defense for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy (PhD) by Seilkhan Balaussa on the topic «Russian Politics in Central Asia: condition, problems and prospects» in the educational program «8D03105 - Regional Studies».
The dissertation was carried out at the «Regional Studies education department» of L.N. Gumilyov Eurasian National University.
The language of defense is kazakh
Official reviewers:
Ismailov Serikzhan Sagyndykovich - candidate of historical sciences, associate professor, Head of the Department of Social and Humanitarian Disciplines of the Kostanay Regional University named after A. Baitursynov. (Kostanay с., Republic of Kazakhstan);
Chukubaev Ermek Samarovich - candidate of historical sciences, associate professor school of Law and Public Administration «Narxoz» University (Almaty с., Republic of Kazakhstan).
Temporary members of the Dissertation Council:
Kushkumbayev Sanat Kairslyamovich - Doctor of Political Sciences, Chief Researcher of the KISI under the President of the Republic of Kazakhstan (Astana с., Republic of Kazakhstan);
Abdurakhmanova Manzura Manafovna - Doctor of Sociological Sciences (PhD), Department of History and Sociology, Fergana State University (Fergana с., Republic of Uzbekistan);
Sultangazy Gulmira Zholmagambetkyzy - candidate of historical sciences, professor of the international school of journalism, Maqsut Narikbayev University (KAZGUU) (Astana с., Republic of Kazakhstan).
Scientific consultants:
Bukeshova Gulnara Kosaevna - candidate of historical sciences, associate professor of the Department of Regional Studies of the ENU named after L.N. Gumilyov (Astana с., Republic of Kazakhstan);
Lagutina Maria Lvovna - doctor of political sciences, professor of the Department of World Politics of the Saint Petersburg State University (Saint Petersburg с., Russian Federation).
The defense will take place on June 10, 2025, at 10:00 AM in the Dissertation Council for the training direction «8D031 - Social sciences» in the educational program «8D03105 - Regional Studies» of L.N. Gumilyov Eurasian National University. Conducting a meeting of the dissertation council in a mixed (offline and online) format.
Address: Astana, K. Satpayev St., 2, Main Building, Room 302.
Abstract (English): The dissertation examines Russia's interests in Central Asia. In particular, the study examines the relations between the Russian Federation and the newly independent republics of Central Asia in the years following the collapse of the Soviet Union and up to the present day. The article examines how Russia has used its geopolitical opportunities since 1991 and how the directions of international relations of the countries of the region - Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan - have developed. As globalization deepens, the geopolitical aspirations of many states are becoming increasingly strong. Currently, some subjects of international relations, within the framework of their geopolitical and geostrategic significance, are deliberately increasing their influence on various states and regions. As a result, the search for effective ways of interstate cooperation is becoming the cornerstone of world politics. These actions became important for the countries of Central Asia after the collapse of the Soviet Union. After all, all post-Soviet sovereign states, due to their geopolitical significance, became the center of conflicting interests of world powers. Given the geopolitical significance of the Central Asian region in the world, it is obvious that this situation directly concerns the countries of the region. The Central Asian region has been known for centuries as a single geopolitical and spiritual space. It is a region rich in natural resources and human capital, with a rich cultural and historical heritage. The importance of Central Asia in political processes has increased significantly against the backdrop of a changing global balance of power and the redistribution of spheres of influence in world politics. In the context of the formation of a polycentric model of the world order, this region is experiencing increased foreign policy activity on the part of global and regional players seeking to strengthen their positions due to its natural potential and strategic location at the crossroads of North and South, West and East. In this context, there are many countries interested in strengthening their positions in Central Asia, including the United States, China, the EU and Russia. Currently, the changing foreign policy vector of Russia, its political influence, as well as the idea of forming a regional integration system in Central Asia are of particular interest to many politicians and experts. Therefore, the development of the situation in Central Asia will largely determine the balance of power on the world stage and the contours of the future world order. Thus, in a period of changing global trends, the study of Russia's political integration efforts in the Central Asian region remains relevant. The purpose of the study is to analyze Russia's foreign policy towards Central Asia as a whole, with an emphasis on the main aspects of interaction in the economic, military-political and humanitarian spheres. The subject of the study is to identify specific aspects, factors and problems that determine Russia's policy in Central Asia, as well as its current state and prospects for further development of relations. Research objectives: The purpose of the dissertation is to analyze the features and dynamics of Russia's modern foreign policy in Central Asia, as well as to identify the instruments of "soft power". In accordance with the stated goal, the following objectives were set for the study: 1. Analysis of the place and role of Russia in the global geopolitical and geo-economic systems. 2. Analysis of the regulatory framework for diplomatic relations between countries. 3. Identification of Russia's problems and challenges, such as competition with other global and regional players in the region (e.g. the EU, China, the USA), as well as political instability in some countries. 4. Systematic analysis of economic aspects of Russia's relations with the Central Asian countries. 5. Assess the strategic importance of Russia for Central Asia in the context of military and political interests. 6. Determine the position of the countries of the region and Russia regarding the dynamics of labor migration. 7. Analysis of cultural and humanitarian ties of the countries of the region with Russia. 8. Analysis of the main directions and instruments of Russia's soft power in the Central Asian countries. 9. Determining the prospects for cooperation between Russia and the Central Asian republics in the context of geopolitical changes. The research methodology was selected depending on the subject and object of the study, as well as the nature of the goals and objectives arising from it. The work is devoted to various methods of analyzing Russia's foreign policy in Central Asia. In the course of the study, historical-political, systemic and comparative methods of studying Russia's policy towards Central Asia were used. The study uses a systemic-analytical approach based on an interdisciplinary approach, effectively combining a group of methods for solving the problem, which allows studying the relationship between Russia and the Central Asian republics from the point of view of the historical-political, socio-economic, cultural and humanitarian systems. Systemic analysis in the work: reveals cause-and-effect relationships that influenced the emergence of the problem; analyzes options for solving systemic problems taking into account limitations, risks and uncertainties; organizes interdisciplinary scientific and applied research. The method of comparative analysis allows studying the similarities and differences of objects, processes or phenomena in order to identify the main features and patterns. The main stages of the comparative analysis method included defining comparison criteria, collecting project data, comparing and identifying similarities and differences, and identifying factors that influence the success or failure of cooperation. In addition, content analysis was used to analyze official reports, interviews, and bilateral agreements between heads of state and government, ambassadors, in order to further study the research topic. Based on the content analysis, it is concluded that the most important areas of the modern concept of Russia's foreign policy are international humanitarian cooperation and human rights. In this regard, a SWOT analysis was conducted to identify the necessary strategy for the further development of cultural diplomacy, analyzing, on the basis of content analysis, the modern tools of Russian cultural diplomacy in Central Asia as a priority area of humanitarian cooperation. Evidence base of the dissertation. The evidence base of the study is divided into several sections. 1. Official foreign policy documents of states: foreign policy concepts of Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Russia. 2. Public speeches, official statements and interviews of diplomats and other officials, heads of state and foreign affairs agencies. 3. Analytical materials of analytical centers of Central Asian countries - Kazakhstan Institute for Strategic Studies under the President of the Republic of Kazakhstan; Institute of World Economy and Politics; Research Center "Zhastar"; National Institute for Strategic Initiatives under the President of the Kyrgyz Republic; Institute for Strategic and Interregional Studies under the President of the Republic of Uzbekistan; Center for Strategic Studies under the President of the Republic of Tajikistan and Russian Institute for Strategic Studies; Russian International Affairs Council, Institute of World Economy and International Relations of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Valdai International Discussion Club. 4. Materials of Central Asian expert and analytical centers: analytical site CenterAsia, Central Asian Bureau of Analytical Journalism CABAR.asia, Eurasian Monitoring, Kazakhstan Center for Analytical Research, expert portal Kazakhstan 2:0, discussion club Pikir (Kyrgyz Republic), etc. 5. Media materials covering the dynamics of geopolitical processes in the region, as well as the foreign policy priorities of the Central Asian states in the context of global transformations. These include The Diplomat, The Washington Post, The Guardian, Rossiyskaya Gazeta, Nezavisimaya Gazeta, Federal Information Agency Regnum, Renmin Ribao newspaper, etc. Materials of authoritative publications are of particular importance. 6. International treaties and agreements concluded by the Central Asian republics with leading states of the world and international organizations. 7. Analytical information was obtained from the Telegram channels “Eurasian Briefing”, Berlek - Unity, “Sputnik Uzbekistan”, “Neighbors|Central Asia”. Level of study of the topic. During the study, many domestic and foreign works were analyzed. Therefore, we present the following selection of literature devoted to the topic of the study. Level of study of the topic. During the study, many domestic and foreign works were analyzed. Therefore, we present the following selection of literature devoted to the topic of the study. The first group of researchers is made up of foreign scientists. Among the foreign scientists, one of them is the American political scientist M.B., who has been studying Central Asia for thirty years. Olcott, S.F. Starr, Zb. Brzezinski, R. Haas and J. Allison, A. Cooley, J. Kissinger, Laruelle reviewed Marlene's work. The second group of studies is made up of Russian authors. Central Asia is considered as an object of study in the works of the following Russian scientists: M.M. Lebedev, N.A. Ivanov, K.P. Boryshpolets, M. Chepurin.B., A.D. Voskresensky, A.I. Nikitin, A.D. Bogaturov, M.A. Khrustalev, A.P. Tsygankov, M.L. Lagutina and E.B. Mikhailenko, S.G. Luzyanin and A.F. Klimenko, I.V. Bolgova and Yu.A. Nikitina, I.D. Zvyagelskaya, F.I. Arzhaev, T. Shepelya and S. Khodochenko, K.P. Kuryleva, Zh. Syzdykova, Sh.M. Sultanova, L.N. The works of a number of scientists, including Krapchin, were also used. The third group of researchers consists of authors from Central Asia. First of all, we will focus on Uzbek researchers. Uzbek political scientist F. Tolipov, B. Ergashev, Sh. Pakhrutdinov and K. Avazov, R. Nazarov reviewed his works. Let us focus on the following Kyrgyz researchers. Among the Kyrgyz researchers C.U. Koichumanov and N.S. Yusupov, K. Taabaldiev and A. Usuvaliyev, C.U. References were made to the work of Koichumanova. As for the Tajik authors. Eurasian geopolitician G.M. Maitdinova, S.V. Mamadov and N.M. Sultanova, R.R. Aliyeva and A. Mamadazimov also analyzed important aspects of the relationship between the countries. The fourth group of researchers is made up of domestic researchers. Among the domestic researchers M.T. Laumulin, In the context of the problem under consideration, the Kazakh political scientist S.K. Kushkumbayev and V. Dodonov, E.V. Tukumov, A.K. Nursha, A.S. Zholdybalina, N.N. Sakuov, A.K. Nazarbetova, M.B. Zhienbayev, M.M. Nurtazin, A.N. Ospanova, B. Seilkhan, Z.E. Nurbaev, G.K. Bukeshova, M.K. To the works of Bolysbekova The theoretical and practical significance of the study lies in its contribution to the development of domestic regional studies and geopolitics. It provides a deeper understanding of the dynamics of Russia's foreign policy in Central Asia, integration processes, security issues and economic cooperation, and contributes to the development of theories and concepts related to the multipolar world, geopolitical processes and regional integration. This study will serve as a basis for further theoretical research in the field of regional studies, foreign policy and geopolitics. The study of Russia's foreign policy in Central Asia helps to complement theories of regional integration, for example, those that explain the emergence and development of multilateral regional organizations. This includes Russia's role in such structures as the CIS, SCO, CSTO and the EAEU. Scientific novelty of the study. The dissertation is distinguished by its scientific novelty, which is associated with a comprehensive study of geopolitical changes in Central Asia in the context of Russian policy, in the context of the growing influence of China and Turkey, new global challenges. In this context, attention is drawn to new areas of strengthening Russia's position in the region and its interaction with states. In addition, an analysis was conducted of changes in Russia's foreign policy towards Central Asia after 2014, as well as the current global crisis situation. In particular, it is possible to consider the evolution of Russian interests in these countries, approaches to economic cooperation, security issues, as well as interaction within regional organizations such as the SCO and CSTO. The study highlights not only the positive aspects, but also the problems in Russian-Central Asian relations, such as the following contradictions: - energy; trade; - economic relations; - labor migration. An important aspect of the work is that many studies emphasize the strategic importance of the region for Russia, but at the same time show the countries of Central Asia in more detail, creating new forms of partnership and diplomatic interaction in Russia's foreign policy. Taking into account such changes as digitalization, the change of world economic centers, the development of the ideology of national identity in the countries of the region, a unique approach to the analysis of the strategic importance and prospects for the development of Russian policy in Central Asia is proposed. The author believes that the following should be highlighted as recommendations for protection: 1. It has been proven that Russia has significant resource, military and technological advantages in the global geopolitical and geo-economic system, which determines its interests in the Central Asian region. In the context of global transformations, Russia's policy is aimed at controlling the balance between global players interested in Central Asia. 2. The main problems affecting the interaction between Russia and the Central Asian countries, including issues of security, energy dependence and economic cooperation, are identified and systematized. In the context of growing competition between China and Western countries, as well as internal economic difficulties caused by sanctions, the process of Russia creating a region with the Central Asian countries is becoming increasingly difficult. Russia faces complex tasks that require adaptation and revision of its foreign policy strategy. 3. It is determined that Russia's goal in the Central Asian region is to maintain its influence and limit the influence of other actors, thereby ensuring Russia's decisive role in resolving the most important issues in the region. 4. Russia's participation in such integration associations as the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU), the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), and the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) has proven its economic necessity. Russia is developing a multi-vector policy taking into account the new strategic realities, including expanding cooperation with China within the SCO and the EAEU, as well as with individual Central Asian countries. 5. Military and political cooperation between Russia and the Central Asian countries has proven to be a key tool for maintaining stability and control in the region. Russia's participation in collective security mechanisms (CSTO, SCO) has proven its effectiveness in countering modern challenges, including transnational terrorism, extremism, drug trafficking and external interference. 6. It has been proven that labor migration from Central Asian countries to Russia is an important socio-economic process that has a significant impact on both the economy of the host country and the countries of origin of migrants. In recent decades, this process has become sustainable, which is due to a number of factors, including the economic situation in the countries of the region, the needs of the Russian labor market, and changes in migration policy. Labor migration from Central Asia to Russia is a multifaceted process with both positive aspects and problems. It is important to continue working to improve migration policy and ensure the rights of migrants so that this process benefits both the host country and the countries exporting labor. 7. It has been proven that Russia will strengthen its presence in the region by creating common values and cultural community. Given the factors of disintegration and different perceptions of historical heritage, certain ideological moments should be avoided when building a common regional consolidation. Russia should take into account that much has changed and is changing dramatically in the countries of the region over the past decades. A new generation has grown up that did not live in the USSR, with different moral guidelines and, in many ways, a different cultural code. New world-class elites have emerged, focused on modern values that differ from Soviet ideology. The understanding of history and culture has changed, a new wave has arisen. 8. It has been established that Russia is successfully implementing a "soft power" policy in relation to the countries of Central Asia, which is one of the most effective methods of disseminating and promoting educational and cultural programs. 9. It has been proven that in the context of geopolitical changes, the future of relations between Russia and Central Asia is determined by economic cooperation. Russia remains an important economic partner for the countries of Central Asia, especially in the areas of energy, trade and infrastructure. Regional security issues, including the fight against terrorism, extremism and drug trafficking, remain an important aspect. Interaction within the SCO and CSTO plays a vital role in ensuring stability in the region. The importance of the Central Asian states as transit points for transport and energy resources necessitates strengthening infrastructure projects, such as the Trans-Caspian Highway and energy projects. Testing of research results. The main findings and provisions of the dissertation research were published in the form of articles at scientific conferences held within the university, as well as in domestic and foreign scientific journals. Of these, 5 articles were published in domestic scientific journals, 4 articles in international scientific journals and 1 article in an international journal indexed by Scopus. Structure and volume of the dissertation. The research work consists of normative references, designations and abbreviations, an introduction, three sections and nine chapters, a conclusion, a list of references and an appendix.
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