Defense of the dissertation of Tursyngaliyeva Gulim Nurlanovna for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy (PhD) in the specialty «6D060200 - Computer Science»
L.N. Gumilyov Eurasian National University, a dissertation defense for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy (PhD) by Tursyngaliyeva Gulim Nurlanovna on the topic «Development of a mathematical model and computer program of relations between ethnic groups» by specialty «6D060200 – Computer Science».
The dissertation was completed at the Department of Computer Science and Information Security of L.N. Gumilyov Eurasian National University.
The language of defense is kazakh
Official reviewers:
Dauren Kabenov – Doctor of Philosophy (PhD, 6D060200- “Informatics” specialty), Researcher and lecturer at Pavlodar Pedagogical University named after Alkey Margulan (Pavlodar, Kazakhstan);
Temporary members of the Dissertation Council:
Vladimir Barakhnin – Doctor of Technical Sciences, Associate Professor, Leading Researcher at the Federal Research Center for Information and Computing Technologies (FRC ICT) (Novosibirsk, Russia);
Maktagali Bektemesov – Doctor of Physical and Mathematical Sciences, Professor, Academician of the National Academy of Sciences of Kazakhstan, and Director General of the Institute of Information and Computational Technologies of the Committee of Science of the Ministry of Science and Higher Education of the Republic of Kazakhstan (Almaty, Republic of Kazakhstan);
Dinara Kaibassova – Doctor of Philosophy (PhD), Associate Professor at Astana IT University (Astana, Republic of Kazakhstan).
Scientific consultants:
Kakim Sagindykov – Candidate of Technical Sciences, Associate Professor of the Department of Information Security, L.N. Gumilyov Eurasian National University (Astana, Republic of Kazakhstan);
Assem Konyrkhanova – Doctor of Philosophy (PhD), Acting Associate Professor of the Department of Information Security, L.N. Gumilyov Eurasian National University (Astana, Republic of Kazakhstan);
Igor Kulikov – Doctor of Physical and Mathematical Sciences, Senior Researcher at the Supercomputer Modeling Laboratory of the Institute of Physics and Mathematics of the Siberian Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Associate Professor at the Department of Computer Engineering, Novosibirsk State University (Novosibirsk, Russia).
The defense will take place on October 03, 2025, at 02:00 PM in the Dissertation Council for the training direction «8D061 – Information and communication technologies» in the specialty «6D060200 – Computer Science» of L.N. Gumilyov Eurasian National University. Conducting a meeting of the dissertation council in a mixed (offline and online) format.
Link: https://surl.li/innspi
Address: Astana city, Pushkin Street 11, Educational Building No. 2, Room 222.
Abstract (English): the dissertation work by Gulim Nurlanovna Tursyngaliyeva “Development of a Mathematical Model and Computer Program for Relations between Ethnic Groups”, submitted for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy (PhD) in the specialty 6D060200 – Computer science. Relevance of the Research Topic. The relevance of this study is determined by the increasing complexity of ethnosocial processes in the modern world and the necessity of developing quantitative methods for analyzing interethnic relations. In the context of globalization, urbanization, and migration processes, the interdependence of various ethnic groups intensifies, leading to both integrative and conflict tendencies. For effective management of ethnopolitical processes, an objective analysis is required, based not only on sociological and historical research but also on rigorous mathematical models. Traditional methods of studying interethnic relations, which rely on qualitative approaches, are often subjective and do not allow for accurate predictions of the development of ethnic interactions. The introduction of quantitative methods and mathematical models will make it possible to identify the key patterns of ethnic processes, determine the factors that contribute to either harmonization or escalation of conflicts, as well as simulate possible scenarios for the development of ethnosocial systems. In addition, the development of specialized software based on mathematical models will enable automated analysis of interethnic processes and visualization of their dynamics. This will create new opportunities for governmental and public organizations involved in the regulation of interethnic relations, as well as for researchers working in the fields of social informatics, ethnopolitology, and conflict studies. Thus, mathematical modeling of interethnic interactions and the creation of appropriate software tools will not only provide a deeper understanding of the nature of interethnic conflicts but also contribute to the development of effective strategies for managing them. This will help ensure stability and sustainable development of multinational societies, reduce the risks of social tensions, and strengthen the principles of peaceful coexistence among ethnic groups. Objective of the Dissertation Research. The main objective of this work is the development of a mathematical model that allows for a quantitative description of interactions between ethnic groups, as well as the creation of a computer program capable of analyzing and predicting the dynamics of interethnic relations. Research Tasks: - to study and analyze mathematical models describing the relationships between ethnic groups; - to identify the main factors influencing interethnic relations and formalize them in the form of mathematical equations; - to develop a mathematical model that describes the dynamics of ethnic interaction, taking into account such factors as social, economic, and political; - to design a software program based on the developed mathematical model, solve experimental tasks, and provide visualization of results within the program; - to evaluate the applicability of the model for forecasting ethnic conflicts and to develop recommendations for managing interethnic processes. Research Methods. The methodology of the research is based on systems analysis, mathematical modeling, and software development using computer technologies. Systems analysis – this method makes it possible to consider ethnic interaction as a complex system of various interrelated factors (social, political, economic). Mathematical modeling – serves as the fundamental research method, allowing ethnic interaction to be formalized in the form of mathematical equations. For modeling complex scenarios of ethnic interaction, simulations were organized based on Talcott Parsons’ theory of structural functionalism and Nash equilibrium methodology. Computer technologies – development of computer programs for implementing the models using modern programming languages and numerical modeling tools (for example, the Pandas, NumPy, and SciPy libraries within the Python programming environment). Main Provisions (Proven Scientific Hypotheses and Other Findings Representing New Knowledge) Submitted for Defense: a comparative analysis of mathematical approaches to modeling ethnic relations, on the basis of which an improved approach to data integration is proposed; key factors influencing the dynamics of relationships between ethnic groups, including political, economic, and sociological aspects, as well as the level of passionarity; mathematical formulas describing the dependencies of the dynamics of ethnic group relations on the identified factors; a mathematical model that takes into account the influence of socio-economic and political factors on the dynamics of interaction between ethnic groups; a software program for solving experimental tasks and visualizing the results; testing of the model using real data on ethnic interactions in different regions; applicability of the model for forecasting ethnic conflicts and development of recommendations. Description of the Main Research Results. As a result of the work, a set of research and practical tasks was carried out, and a number of new scientific results were obtained. Result 1. Comparative analysis of methods for modeling ethnic relations. During the study, various methods of modeling interethnic relations were analyzed, such as differential equations, agent-based models, game theory, and network models. These approaches reflect different aspects of ethnic interaction: temporal dynamics (differential equations), behavior of individuals and groups (agent-based models), strategic interaction (game theory), and network connections (network models). A comparative analysis of these models makes it possible to assess their advantages and limitations in real-world situations. A comparison table simplifies understanding the differences between the models and helps to select the most suitable approach for specific tasks, such as forecasting interethnic relations or conflicts. Result 2. Identification and formalization of the main factors of interethnic relations. The study established that relations between ethnic groups are primarily influenced by political, economic, and social factors. These factors reflect the views, interests, and resources of ethnic groups. Political factors include laws, policies of integration or discrimination, as well as power conflicts. Economic factors describe ethnic groups’ access to resources, employment, and welfare, while social factors reflect cultural differences, levels of education, and social integration. Formalizing these factors into a mathematical model allows for describing their impact on interethnic relations. This model serves as a basis for more accurate forecasting of changes, depending on various factors and their interconnections. Result 3. Development of the software program and solving experimental tasks. Based on the mathematical model, a software program was developed that allows input of data on political, economic, and social conditions and enables analysis of ethnic group interactions. The Python programming language was chosen for implementation, as it easily integrates libraries for quantitative analysis, visualization, and big data processing. Solving experimental tasks using the program demonstrated its practical applicability. For instance, the program can be used to evaluate the level of tension between ethnic groups and to identify hotspots or groups at risk of isolation or discrimination. Result 4. Factor analysis of interconnections between political, economic, and social influences. Factor analysis revealed how changes in one factor (e.g., economic) influence other aspects of interethnic relations. The interrelationship between these factors is crucial, as political instability may lead to economic inequality, which in turn affects social cohesion. Recommendations based on the model can provide solutions for improving social integration, adjusting economic policy, or reducing political risks to prevent ethnic conflicts. Forecasting events using the model makes it possible to adapt it to specific regions, which is important for making managerial decisions at the regional level. Justification of the Novelty and Significance of the Obtained Results. Novelty of the Results: - For the first time, a mathematical model has been developed that takes into account the interaction of political, economic, and sociological factors along with the level of passionarity. This approach allows for a more accurate description of the dynamics of interethnic relations and prediction of their development under various social conditions. - The main determinants of interethnic interaction, which were previously studied separately, have been identified and formalized. Their integration into a single model enables the combination of data from different fields (sociology, economics, political science) for systemic analysis. - A software environment for numerical analysis and visualization of results has been developed. The program provides real-time computation, which previously required the use of highly specialized tools. For the first time within such a model, tools for data export have been implemented to support further analysis. - The model was tested on real data, which made it possible to propose a new methodology for forecasting ethnic conflicts and zoning regions according to the level of social tension. Significance of the Results: - The developed model and software have practical importance for the analysis and management of interethnic processes. They can be used by government bodies, international organizations, and research centers to prevent ethnic conflicts and minimize their consequences. - The study contributes to the development of interdisciplinary approaches, combining methods of mathematics, computer technologies, and the humanities. This creates a foundation for further research and the development of new models that could include additional aspects (e.g., environmental and cultural). - The software provides an intuitive and visual tool for analyzing current and predicting future interethnic processes. This simplifies the use of the model not only for researchers but also for practitioners working in the field of ethnosocial processes. - By incorporating universal factors (political, economic, and social), the proposed model becomes applicable in different countries and regions, which increases its relevance in a global context. Compliance with the Directions of Scientific Development and State Programs. The dissertation corresponds to the priority areas of scientific development approved by the Higher Scientific and Technical Commission under the Government of the Republic of Kazakhstan: 1. “Information, Communication, and Space Technologies.” It also complies with the following state programs: 1. The State Program “Digital Kazakhstan”, approved by Resolution No. 827 of the Government of the Republic of Kazakhstan dated December 12, 2017; 2. The State Program for the Development of Education and Science of the Republic of Kazakhstan for 2020–2025. The Applicant’s Contribution to the Preparation of Each Publication. The research work presented in the dissertation, as well as the results published in scientific articles and research reports, was carried out with the direct participation of the author. Approbation of the Dissertation Results. The main results of the dissertation work were presented by the applicant at seminars and meetings of the Department of Information Security of L.N. Gumilyov Eurasian National University, as well as at the Department of Function Theory of the Mechanics and Mathematics Faculty of Novosibirsk State University: 1. Seminar dedicated to the Decade of Science, Faculty of Information Technologies, 2019; 2. Meeting of the Department of Computing Systems, Novosibirsk State University, 2018 and 2019; 3. Extended meeting of the Department of Artificial Intelligence Technologies, L.N. Gumilyov Eurasian National University, October 15, 2024. Publications of the Research Results - Article published in a scientific journal indexed in Scopus: 1. Tursyngaliyeva G., Sagindykov, K., Konyrkhanova, A., Niyazova, R., Sydykova, A. Modeling the dynamical ethnic processes in multinational society. Journal of Modelling in Management. Emerald Publishing Limited. ISSN: 1746-5664. Volume 18, №1. Pages 61-71. (Scopus, процентиль 68) DOI: 10.1108/JM2-11-2020-0308 - Articles published in scientific journals recommended by the Committee for Quality Assurance in Science and Higher Education of the Ministry of Science and Higher Education of the Republic of Kazakhstan (CQASE MES RK): 1. Sagindykov K.M., Tursyngaliyeva G.N. Áleumettik toptyń matematıkalyq modelі men programmalyq jabdyǵyn qúru negіzderі. Shákárіm atyndaǵy Semeı memlekettіk unıversitetіnіń habarshysy. Tekhnıkalyq ǵylymdary. – Semeı, 2018. – № 4 – 64-67 b. 2. Sagindykov K.M., Qońyrkhanova Á.A., Tursyngaliyeva G.N. Qazaqstan halyqtarynyń áleumettik-etnıkalyq qatynastarynyń matematıkalyq modelі. Almaty energetıka jáne baılanýs unıversitetіnіń habarshysy. Aqparattyq tekhnologııalar serııasy. Almaty, 2019 – 1(44). – 38-44 b. 3. Tursyngaliyeva G.N., Sagindykov K.M., Qonyrkhanova A.A. Vızualızacııa matematıcheskoı modelı vzaimodeıstvııa etnıcheskikh grupp s pomoshch’ı programmogo ıazyka. Vestnık KazNITU. Serııa Fıziko-matematicheskıe naukı. Almaty, 2020. – №5(141). – S. 569-573. 4. G.N. Tursyngaliyeva. Computer research of the mathematical model of ethnic group development. Vestnık Nacıonal’noı ınzhenernoı akademıı RK. Serııa Tsıfrovyye tekhnologıı. Almaty, 2020. – №3(77). – S. 91-94. 5. Sagindykov K.M., Qonyrkhanova A.A., Tursyngaliyeva G.N., Mukusheva N.Zh., Nıkambaeva N.N. Python kómegіmen etnıkalyq toptar arasyndaǵy qarym-qatynasty zertteý: taldau ádіsterі men nátıjelerі. Trudy unıversıteta. 5-razdel. Avtomatıka. Energetıka. IKT. Qaragandy, 2024. – №4. – S. 386-392. - Publications included in the proceedings of national and international conferences: 1. Sagindykov K., Tursyngaliyeva G. Mathematical Modeling ofthe Stability of the Assembly of People to External and Internal Destabilizing Effects. Materials of the IV International Scientific-Practical Conference "The Europe and the Turkic World:Science, Engineering and Technology". –Istanbul.- 2019. – p.256-259. 2. Sagindykov K.M., Tursyngaliyeva G.N. Áleumettіk-etnostyq toptardyń qatynastaryn sıpattaityn dynamıkalyq modelder. IV Mezhdunarodnaia nauchno-prakticheskaia konferentsıa «Perspektivy razvıtıa sovremennoı nauki». – Kvandzhu, 2019. – S. 268-273. 3. Sagindykov K.M., Tursyngaliyeva G.N. Toptardyń aǵymdyq qozǵalystaryn sıpattaityn matematıkalyq modelder. Intellektualdyq aqparattyq jáne kommunıkacııalyq tekhnologııalar – «Qazaqstan-2050» strategııasy aıasynda úshіnshі ındustrıaldy revolıuıcıany zhuzege asyrýdyń quraly»: V Khalyqar. ǵyl.-prakt. konf. baıandamalar zhinaghy. – Astana, 2018. – B. 380-383. 4. Sagindykov K.M., Qonyrkhanova A.A., Tursyngaliyeva G.N. Etnıkalyq zhúıelerdіń matematıkalyq modelіn Matlab paketіnіń kómegіmen zertteý. Sbornık materialov mezhdunarodnoı nauchno-praktıcheskoı konferentsıı «Shokan oqulary – 24», posviashchénnoı 185-letııu Shokana Ualihanova. – Kokshetau, 2020. Tom 2. – S. 113-122. 5. G.N. Tursyngaliyeva. T. Parsons teorııasynyń negіzіnde etnıkalyq toptardyń túraqtylyǵy men qatynastaryn taldaýǵa arnalǵan matematıkalyq modeldі qúru. «Ǵylym jáne ınnovacııalar: zhanaalyqtar, máseleler men jetіstіkter» khalyqaralyq ǵylymı-tájіribellіk konferencııasynyń maqalalar zhinaghy. 1-tom. – Almaty: «Bilim Innovations Group» ortalyǵy, 2020. – 201-205 bb. - Certificate of State Registration of a Copyright Object: 1. G.N. Tursyngaliyeva, K.M. Sagindykov, A.A. Konyrkhanova. Software for Analyzing the Mathematical Model of the Development of Ethnic Groups of Kazakhstan. Certificate of Entry into the State Register of Rights to Objects Protected by Copyright No. 9149 dated April 6, 2020. - Act of Implementation 1. Act of Implementation of the Dissertation Research Results into Production (authors K.M. Sagindykov, G.N. Tursyngaliyeva). Volume and Structure of the Dissertation. The dissertation is consistent with the logic of scientific research and consists of notations and abbreviations, an introduction, three chapters, a conclusion, a list of references, and two appendices. The work is printed on 104 pages and makes use of computer-based visualization tools such as illustrations, diagrams, and tables to emphasize key points. The author expresses deep gratitude to the domestic scientific supervisors – Candidate of Technical Sciences, Associate Professor of the Department of Information Security Kakim Moldabekovich Sagindykov, and PhD, Acting Associate Professor Asem Adilbekovna Konyrkhanova – as well as to the foreign consultant, Doctor of Physical and Mathematical Sciences, Professor of Novosibirsk State University Igor Mikhailovich Kulikov, for their invaluable work and consultations during the course of the research.
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