Defense of the dissertation of Demeuov Nurzhan for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy (PhD) in the educational program «8D03102 - International Relations»
L.N. Gumilyov Eurasian National University, a dissertation defense for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy (PhD) by Demeuov Nurzhan on the topic «Attraction of investments as a factor of external economic development of the Republic of Kazakhstan» to the educational program «8D03102 – International Relations».
The dissertation was carried out at the «International Relations education department» of L.N. Gumilyov Eurasian National University.
The language of defense is russian
Official reviewers:
Nursultanova Lyazzat Nurbayevna – Doctor of Historical Sciences, Associate Professor at Astana International University (Astana, Republic of Kazakhstan);
Kurmashev Aidar Kenzhebekovich – PhD, Head of the Asian Studies Department at the Kazakhstan Institute for Strategic Studies under the President of the Republic of Kazakhstan.
Temporary members of the Dissertation Council:
David Aptiauri – Director General of the Georgian Chamber of Commerce and Industry, Professor at the Beijing University of International Business and Economics, Professor at the Georgian International University (Tbilisi, Georgia).
Akishev Arman Aitmukhametovich – Doctor of Political Sciences, Professor of the Department of History of Kazakhstan at Toraighyrov University (Pavlodar, Republic of Kazakhstan);
Dosova Bibigul Aralbayeva – Candidate of Historical Sciences, Associate Professor of the Department of World History and International Relations at Karaganda Buketov University (Karaganda, Republic of Kazakhstan).
Scientific advisors:
Yesdauletova Ardak Melsovna – Doctor of Historical Sciences, Professor of the Department of International Relations at L.N. Gumilyov Eurasian National University (Astana, Republic of Kazakhstan).
Ajay Kumar Patnaik – Foreign Scientific Consultant, PhD, Professor at Jawaharlal Nehru University (New Delhi, India).
The defense will take place on March 31, 2026, at 11:00 AM in the Dissertation Council for the training direction «8D031 – Social sciences» in the educational program «8D03102 – International Relations» of L.N. Gumilyov Eurasian National University. The dissertation council meeting will be held in a mixed offline and online format.
Link: https://surl.li/wtkiru
Address: Astana, st. K. Satpayev 2, room No. 302
Abstract (English): The relevance. Over the years of independence, Kazakhstan has become the leading recipient of foreign direct investment (FDI) in Central Asia, accounting for more than 60% of total foreign investment inflows into the region. At the same time, a contradiction persists between the quantitative results achieved in attracting capital and the need for a qualitative transformation of its structure in the interests of export and technological diversification, participation in global value chains, and strengthening Kazakhstan’s international position. Moreover, amid increasing geopolitical turbulence and sanctions pressure, investments are increasingly becoming instruments of economic statecraft and soft power, rather than merely sources of financial and technological resources. This necessitates an analysis of FDI not only within the framework of classical economic theory, but also from the perspectives of international relations and international political economy. Object, subject, and purpose. The object of the study is the process of attracting and utilizing foreign direct investment in the economy of the Republic of Kazakhstan in the context of its external economic development. The subject of the study comprises the economic, institutional, and political-diplomatic mechanisms through which FDI influences Kazakhstan’s external economic development, including export dynamics and structure, participation in global value chains, geographic and product diversification, as well as the country’s international positioning. The purpose of the dissertation is to develop a theoretical-methodological and applied approach to assessing and improving the investment policy of the Republic of Kazakhstan as an instrument of external economic development in the context of the transformation of international relations. Main objectives. To achieve this goal, the following tasks were accomplished: – to systematize theoretical approaches to the analysis of FDI within the frameworks of world economic theory, international political economy, and international relations theory; – to conduct a historical and chronological analysis of the evolution of Kazakhstan’s investment policy from 1991 to 2024; – to analyze the current dynamics and structure of FDI by donor countries, types of activity, and entry modes, and to assess their impact on foreign trade turnover, participation in global value chains, and the economic complexity of exports; – to develop and test a modified gravity model of FDI determinants; – to empirically assess the impact of FDI on exports, participation in global value chains, and diversification; – to identify institutional and diplomatic mechanisms supporting FDI (Ministry of Foreign Affairs, KAZAKH INVEST, Astana International Financial Centre, visa and migration policy); – to formulate strategic priorities and scenario guidelines for Kazakhstan’s investment policy as a “middle power.” Hypothesis. The hypothesis of the study is that FDI inflows and their impact on Kazakhstan’s external economic development are determined not only by traditional market factors—market size and capacity, trade openness, and resource potential—but also by the quality of the institutional environment, the legal credibility of state commitments, and political-diplomatic proximity with key donor countries. Strengthening these components would enable investment policy to transform FDI from a predominantly resource-based source of short-term revenues into a sustainable driver of export and structural diversification and of strengthening Kazakhstan’s status as a “middle power” and a geo-economic hub of Eurasia. Theoretical and methodological framework and methods. The theoretical foundation is based on neoclassical and institutional theory, concepts of international political economy, and the main paradigms of international relations theory—political realism and neorealism, liberal and neoliberal institutionalism, constructivism, as well as world-systems and dependency approaches. In addition, the concepts of economic statecraft, soft power, and John Dunning’s OLI paradigm are employed. The methodological toolkit includes historical-logical and institutional analysis, structural analysis of investment policy, gravity modeling of FDI using PPML, panel models with fixed effects, dynamic panels (ARDL/ECM) and GMM-based estimations, as well as elements of scenario analysis and strategic planning. Structure and summary of the work. The dissertation consists of an introduction, three chapters, a conclusion, a list of references, and appendices. The first chapter presents the theoretical foundations. It demonstrates that FDI is a multidimensional phenomenon at the intersection of international economics and international relations: it simultaneously serves as a source of capital and technology, an instrument of economic statecraft, and a channel of soft power for middle states. An original approach is proposed to interpret FDI in relation to Kazakhstan as a middle state combining the functions of a capital recipient and a regional geo-economic hub. A methodology for assessing the impact of FDI on external economic development is developed, based on indicators of exports, participation in global value chains, economic complexity, and institutional characteristics. The second chapter provides a historical and chronological analysis of the evolution of Kazakhstan’s investment policy from 1991 to 2024. Stages are identified—from the early “open door” model to the contemporary phase, in which investment policy is integrated into a multi-vector foreign policy and the concept of economic statecraft. Changes in the legal regime of FDI and institutional architecture are examined (the establishment of the Astana International Financial Centre, the role of KAZAKH INVEST, and the development of the legal and treaty framework, including investment agreements and participation in integration associations). Based on a detailed analysis of FDI statistics by donor countries, sectors, and entry modes, key trends are identified: the continued dominant role of the EU and the United States alongside the growing importance of China, Türkiye, and Gulf countries; and a gradual shift from a resource core toward manufacturing, transport, logistics, and selected segments of the green and digital economy. A modified gravity model of FDI “Kazakhstan–donor country” is then developed and tested, incorporating, alongside traditional economic and geographic variables, an integral indicator of diplomatic proximity, legal-treaty characteristics (BITs, integration arrangements), and the Fragile States Index. New empirical results are obtained on the determinants of FDI in Kazakhstan in 2015–2024, demonstrating differences in the influence of economic, institutional, and political-diplomatic factors across groups of donor countries and types of investment (greenfield, M&A, joint ventures). The third chapter moves to the applied level. Based on identified constraints in investment policy and international experience, a set of recommendations is formulated to improve mechanisms for attracting FDI and advancing Kazakhstan’s investment diplomacy. Particular attention is given to: – aligning the investment agenda with multi-vector foreign policy and the country’s “middle power” status; – strengthening institutional resilience and the legal credibility of commitments; – developing a logistics, financial, and digital hub; – using visa, migration, and humanitarian policy as instruments for attracting human capital and private investors; – shifting toward “quality FDI” in non-resource and high-technology sectors. Strategic priorities and scenario guidelines for Kazakhstan’s investment policy within the system of international relations are formulated, including on the basis of scenario analysis of the external environment and assessment of risks of geopolitical fragmentation. Scientific novelty. The scientific novelty of the study lies in the following: The theoretical understanding of FDI is refined with regard to Kazakhstan as a middle state combining the functions of a capital recipient and a regional geo-economic hub; FDI is interpreted as an instrument of economic statecraft and soft power within the logic of contemporary international relations theories. An original historical-chronological periodization of the evolution of Kazakhstan’s investment policy (1991–2024) is proposed, linking changes in the legal regime of FDI with stages in the formation of a multi-vector foreign policy. A modified gravity model of FDI incorporating diplomatic proximity, legal-treaty characteristics, and the Fragile States Index is developed and empirically tested. New results are obtained on the differentiation of FDI factors across groups of donor countries and types of investment. A comprehensive assessment is conducted of the impact of FDI on exports, participation in global value chains, and the economic complexity of exported products. Key provisions submitted for defense. – FDI in Kazakhstan is not only a source of capital and technology but also an instrument of external economic positioning and geo-economic balance, which requires integrating investment policy into the strategy of multi-vector foreign policy and the concept of a “middle power.” – The evolution of investment policy is characterized by a transition from a simple “open door” regime to a configuration of economic statecraft, where FDI is used to diversify external economic ties, develop a transit-logistics and financial hub, and strengthen international guarantees of sovereignty. – The determinants of FDI are shaped by the combined influence of economic, institutional, and political-diplomatic factors; their significance varies across donor countries and types of investment. – The potential of FDI is fully realized only when its sectoral and technological structure corresponds to the objectives of export and structural diversification and when there are well-developed support institutions and mechanisms for integration into global value chains. Theoretical and practical significance. The theoretical significance of the work lies in advancing the understanding of FDI as a multidimensional phenomenon at the intersection of international economics and international relations and in substantiating the integration of Kazakhstan’s investment policy into the concept of economic statecraft. The practical significance lies in developing a set of recommendations for public authorities and development institutions (Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Ministry of National Economy, KAZAKH INVEST, Astana International Financial Centre, etc.), as well as in the possibility of using the results in strategic and program documents and in the educational process.
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