Defense of the dissertation of Ospan Gauhar for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy (PhD) in the educational program «8D05211 - Search geography and geographic information systems»

L.N. Gumilyov Eurasian National University, a dissertation defense for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy (PhD) by Ospan Gauhar on the topic «Space - time analysis of the factors of anthropogenic transformation of geosystems in the Nura river basin» to the educational program «8D05211 – Search geography and geographic information systems».

The dissertation was carried out at the «Physical and economical geography education department» of L.N. Gumilyov Eurasian National University.

The language of defense is kazakh

Official reviewers:

Kuderin Amanzhol Alimzhanovich – PhD, Head of the G.V. Geldyeva Laboratory of Landscape Science and Nature Management, JSC «Institute of Geography and Water Security», specialty: 6D060800 – «Ecology» (Almaty, Republic of Kazakhstan);

Bazarbayeva Tursynkul Amankeldiyevna – Candidate of Geographical Sciences, Associate Professor, Head of the UNESCO Department for Sustainable Development at Al-Farabi Kazakh National University, specialization: 25.00.23 - «Physical Geography and Biogeography, Soil Geography and Landscape Geochemistry», 25.00.36 - «Geoecology» (Almaty c., Republic of Kazakhstan).

Temporary members of the Dissertation Committee:

Kurepina Nadezhda Yuryevna – Candidate of Geographical Sciences, Senior Researcher, Institute of Water and Environmental Problems, Siberian Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences, specialty: 25.00.33 – «Cartography» (Barnaul, Russian Federation);

Yershibulov Azamat Kairatovich – PhD, Researcher, U.U. Uspanov Kazakh Research Institute of Soil Science and Agrochemistry, specialty: 8D05202 – «Geography» (Almaty c., Republic of Kazakhstan).

Akpambetova Kamshat Makpalbayevna – Candidate of Geographical Sciences, Associate Professor of the Department of «Geography» of NLC «Karaganda National Research University named after academician E.A. Buketov», specialty: 25.00.25 - «Geomorphology and evolutionary geography» (Karaganda с., Republic of Kazakhstan).

Scientific advisors:

Ozgeldinova Zhanar Ozgeldinovna – Doctor of Philosophy (PhD), Acting Professor of the Department of «Physical and Economic Geography» of the L.N.Gumilyov Eurasian National University, specialty: 6D060900 – «Geography» (Astana, Republic of Kazakhstan);

Dunets Alexander – Doctor of Geographical Sciences, Professor of the Department of Economic Geography and Cartography at Altai State University, specialty: 25.00.24 – «Economic, Social, Political and Recreational Geography» (Barnaul, Russian Federation).

The defense will take place on October 14, 2026, at 11:00 AM in the Dissertation Council for the training direction «8D052 – Environment» in the educational program «8D05211 – Search geography and geographic information systems» of L.N. Gumilyov Eurasian National University. The defense meeting is planned to be held offline and online.

Link: https://teams.microsoft.com/l/channel/19%3AhC_IyYrdz-MGOViTtheXw0be5FjIzwiBR2eFostyIwU1%40thread.tacv2/General?groupId=21388254-6d75-43a0-b95d-4daa1682a405&tenantId=5a2fd781-9261-485a-af2b-6171d0efab73

Address: Astana, st. Kazhymukan, 13, educational building No. 3, meeting room (room No. 333).

Abstract (English): Relevance of the Research Topic. In the past decade, the interaction between nature and society has become one of the most pressing issues in environmental science. The impact of anthropogenic factors on the development of geosystems and their components in long-settled and economically utilized regions warrants special attention. Advances in satellite imagery processing and Geographic Information Systems (GIS) technologies provide new avenues for analyzing the spatiotemporal factors driving the anthropogenic transformation of geosystems. The history of land use and resource management is a critical driver directly shaping the current state of landscapes. The "legacy effect" defined as the impact of historical land-use activities on contemporary environmental components—remains an understudied subject in landscape geoecology. Existing literature demonstrates that prior conditions leave a distinct footprint on modern landscape elements. Consequently, investigating historical land-use patterns enables a clearer understanding of the current condition and trajectory of environmental components. The long-term influence of past human activities on regional landscape diversity requires a comprehensive, integrated assessment. As a result of long-term anthropogenic economic activity, a complex geoecological situation has developed in the Nura River basin. The economic development of the region is primarily associated with mineral extraction and processing, which fostered the growth not only of the metallurgical and fuel industries, but also of the chemical and construction sectors. At the same time, the Nura River basin plays a vital role in the region's socioeconomic development: its river waters are extensively utilized for industrial supply, agriculture, municipal and domestic needs, as well as for the operation of reservoirs and irrigation systems. Consequently, the ecological status of the basin, alongside its natural resource potential, directly determines the quality of life of the population and the economic sustainability of the region. The diversity of transformation states in geosystems resulting from economic development necessitates their comprehensive study. In this context, the relevance of this research lies in identifying the spatiotemporal patterns of anthropogenic impacts through the integration of Geographic Information Systems (GIS) and Remote Sensing (RS). The acquired data serves as a foundation for scientifically grounded forecasting of the future trajectory of these geosystems and for shaping sustainable land and water resource management strategies for the Nura River basin. Research Aim: To conduct a spatiotemporal analysis of the factors driving the anthropogenic transformation of geosystems in the Nura River basin, identify patterns of their alteration resulting from economic development, and formulate recommendations for optimizing environmental management. To achieve this aim, the following objectives must be addressed:  Analyze the natural factors governing geosystem formation;  Construct a medium-scale landscape map of the study area;  Analyze the spatiotemporal patterns of factors driving the anthropogenic transformation of geosystems;  Assess the impact of anthropogenic factors on the geochemical state of geosystems;  Conduct a spatiotemporal analysis of landscape dynamics under anthropogenic pressure;  Forecast geosystem dynamics considering the characteristics of current and future environmental management frameworks in the study area;  Develop recommendations for optimizing the structure of environmental management in the study area based on the obtained results. Research Methods. The study is based on the methodology of landscape-geochemical research, the fundamental principles of which were developed in the works of A.I. Perelman, N.S. Kasimov, and M.A. Glazovskaya. The primary research methods include comparative-geographic analysis, statistical analysis, spatial interpolation techniques, and the geosystem-basin approach. Chemical analytical investigations were conducted in testing laboratories at "EcoNus" LLP and JSC "National Center of Expertise and Certification" in Karaganda. Variational-statistical analysis was applied to process the obtained results; GIS-mapping techniques and Remote Sensing (RS) data were utilized in map construction. Key Statements to be Defended: - Primary Landscape Transformation Factors: Industrial activities (mining and metallurgical complexes) and agricultural activities (livestock farming and arable farming) were identified as the primary drivers of landscape transformation in the river basin. These anthropogenic factors caused a spatial-organizational restructuring of land cover, changes in land-use structure, and a phased transition of arable lands into pastures and abandoned lands (fallow lands) as a result of anthropogenic transformation. - The combined impact of anthropogenic factors leads to changes in the geochemical state of geosystems, characterized by heavy metal concentrations (Cu, Zn, Pb, Hg) exceeding background levels and maximum allowable concentrations (MPC) in key environmental components, including soils, surface waters, and vegetation cover. Pollution intensity displays distinct spatial differentiation, increasing in proximity to major industrial centers such as the Karaganda-Temirtau conurbation. Its dispersion is closely linked to aerotechnogenic migration processes, prevailing wind regimes, and the structure and intensity of the region's industrial load. - Landscape Degradation and Spatiotemporal Patterns: Landscape degradation (degress) follows specific spatiotemporal patterns. During the 1980–2025 period, this was manifested by a reduction in weakly degraded areas and an increase in areas with severe and very severe degrees of degradation, indicating a regressive transformation of geosystems and an increased spread of synanthropic species. The assessment of geosystem degradation severity was conducted based on O.V. Marynich's classification, remote sensing data, and the Degradation Index ($\text{DI}$). These approaches serve as effective tools for the comprehensive evaluation of the spatiotemporal dynamics of anthropogenic factors. - Future Land-Use Modeling (CA-Markov): According to CA-Markov modeling results, the proportion of technogenic and agricultural lands in the study area is expected to increase by 2050, with the transformation of agricultural lands—including pasturelands—becoming the predominant trend in land-use structure. The results of the comprehensive spatiotemporal analysis of anthropogenic transformation factors in the Nura River basin provide a scientific foundation for formulating sustainable environmental management strategies aimed at mitigating landscape degradation and supporting managerial decision-making to enhance the region's geoecological sustainability. Differentiated environmental management regimes (protective, extensive, and intensive) along with a suite of geosystem restoration measures (phytoremediation, bioremediation, and hydromelioration) are proposed for territories subject to varying levels of anthropogenic pressure. Based on the research conducted and the results obtained, the following conclusions have been drawn: - Landscape Identification and Hierarchical Classification: Field investigations in the Nura River basin identified and mapped 35 distinct landscape units. Based on a typological classification and structural-genetic analysis, these landscapes were systematized into a hierarchical framework: class (lowland and mountain landscapes), type (steppe and semi-desert landscapes), and subzone (northern and southern steppe landscapes). The study analyzed the physical-geographic and climatic factors influencing landscape pollution dynamics under anthropogenic pressure within the basin. - Land-Use Dynamics and Agricultural Shift: Land-use maps of the basin were constructed for each target period (1980–2025) to perform a spatiotemporal analysis of drivers shaping landscape transformation. Industrial (mining) and agricultural (livestock) practices were identified as the primary drivers of landscape alteration in the watershed. The analysis revealed that shifts in agricultural land-use practices during the study period caused a structural transition, with former arable lands converting into pastures or abandoned (fallow) lands. - The influence of anthropogenic factors on the geochemical state of the geosystems within the river basin was analyzed. The composition of pollutants is associated with the diversity of industrial enterprises operating in the region. With increasing proximity to emission sources, exceedances of the Maximum Permissible Concentration (MPC) were detected in surface waters: by 1.5 times for Cu²⁺, 4 times for Zn²⁺, and 2 times for Hg²⁺; in soils, the MPC was exceeded by 5 times for Cu²⁺, 3.5 times for Pb²⁺, and 2 times for Zn²⁺. The highest levels of mineralization and concentrations of heavy metals exceeding both background values and Maximum Permissible Concentrations (MPCs) were identified at key sites No. 11 in Karaganda and No. 12 in Temirtau. At these sites, copper concentrations exceed the MPC by 2.5 times, Zn by 4 times, Hg by 5.7 times, and Pb by 1.2 times. The concentrations of pollutants are directly related to the production volumes of metallurgical enterprises, particularly the activities of JSC “Qarmet”, LLP “Tau-Ken Temir”, and LLP “Exim Artis”. At the aforementioned key sites, the concentration of sulfate ions exceeds the MPC by 8 times and the background level by 2 times, which can be attributed to the influence of sulfuric acid processes resulting from the oxidation of sulfide minerals in ore-bearing zones. - The results of the study showed that the distribution of heavy metals in soils and vegetation depends on the direction and frequency of prevailing air flows in the region. The concentrations of heavy metals in plants exceeding the Maximum Permissible Concentrations (MPCs) — by 1.2 times in white wormwood (Artemisia terrae-albae) and by 1.3 times in quackgrass (Elytrigia repens) — indicate a high level of contamination in the investigated areas. Furthermore, it was established that the capacity to accumulate heavy metals varies depending on the biogeochemical characteristics of plant species: spreading goosefoot predominantly accumulates Zn and Cu, feather grass accumulates higher amounts of Pb, whereas white wormwood and quackgrass accumulate these elements at moderate levels. The identified patterns provide a scientific basis for using vegetation as a bioindicator in the assessment of environmental contamination. During the field studies, four degrees of vegetation degradation in the Nura River basin were identified based on the classification proposed by O.V. Marynych: weak degradation (the degree of loss of Stipa feather-grass species), moderate degradation (the feather-grass degree), severe degradation (the wormwood degree), and very severe degradation (the degree of annual weed species). In addition, the DI index was applied to determine the spatiotemporal dynamics of degradation intensity based on satellite imagery. Four classes were identified according to the DI values: 0–0.4 — weak degradation, 0.4–0.8 — moderate degradation, 0.8–1.2 — severe degradation, and >1.2 — very severe degradation. Earth remote sensing data enabled the validation of the O.V. Marynych classification and the DI index by comparing their results with the vegetation indices NDVI and SAVI. - Degradation Trends and Climate Interaction: Over the study period, the proportion of plant communities with slight degradation declined from 45.6% to 36.5%, whereas areas with very severe degradation increased from 15.6% to 21.1%. The results demonstrate a decline in perennial herbaceous communities and an expansion of synanthropic species, clearly signaling regressive geosystem transformation. Against the backdrop of changing climatic conditions—particularly increasing drought frequency—intensifying anthropogenic pressure alters floral composition and accelerates structural degradation. - Spatial Modeling up to 2050 (CA-Markov): A prospective spatial organization map of the Nura River basin through 2050 was developed using CA-Markov modeling, predicting a 20% increase in the areal extent of technogenic features. Markov chain projections confirm an increasing intensity of land use by 2050, with the main vector shifting from pastures toward arable lands and built-up areas. Intensive economic development will be driven by the expansion of the raw material base of the Karaganda-Temirtau conurbation and industrial optimization. The development of new mineral deposits (Baktai, Oypat, Saryozen, etc.) and the commissioning of major metallurgical, machine-building, and construction enterprises will diversify the regional industrial structure. Additionally, livestock headcounts are projected to grow by 6.5%, expanding pastureland area by 32%. Arable land area is projected to increase from 8.41 km² in 1980 to 10.88 km² (+29.4%), reflecting intensified agricultural land utilization. - Based on an analysis of landscape dynamics under anthropogenic impact using remote sensing (RS) and GIS technologies, recommendations were proposed for an optimal land-use structure within the study area. Depending on the degree of landscape degradation under anthropogenic impact, three land-use management regimes were proposed: conservation, extensive, and intensive. Taking into account the current geoecological condition of the landscapes, measures aimed at improving soil and surface water conditions were proposed, including phytoremediation, bioremediation, and hydromelioration. - The results of the analysis of the factors driving the anthropogenic transformation of the geosystems of the Nura River basin made it possible to develop a comprehensive set of measures and recommendations aimed at improving the geoecological condition of the geosystems. The proposed recommendations can be used in the development of long-term plans for the development of the study area. The scientific novelty of the study lies in the following aspects: For the first time, based on a comparative analysis covering the period from 1980 to 2025, the spatiotemporal dynamics of anthropogenic pressure within the Nura River basin were identified, and land-use maps were developed based on remote sensing data and archival materials. - The O.V. Marynych classification was validated using the DI index, and an integrated approach to assessing geosystem degradation based on the use of vegetation indices was proposed. Differentiated land-use optimization regimes and a comprehensive set of measures for landscape restoration aimed at reducing the degree of geosystem degradation were systematized. Scientific and Practical Significance of the Study: Identifying the developmental patterns of the investigated geosystems under anthropogenic forcing is an essential prerequisite for scientifically sound forecasting of their future trajectory. Without such forecasting, it is impossible to plan land reclamation, remediation, and other measures aimed at sustainable natural resource management. Structure and Content of the Dissertation: The dissertation consists of an introduction, three chapters, a conclusion, a list of references, and 10 appendices. The thesis comprises 176 pages of typescript, including 31 tables and 30 figures. The reference list contains 153 items. The main findings and conclusions of the dissertation are published in 7 scientific works: 4 articles in journals recommended by the Committee for Quality Assurance in the Sphere of Education and Science of the Ministry of Science and Higher Education of the Republic of Kazakhstan, 1 article in an international journal indexed in the Scopus database, and 2 proceedings in international scientific and practical conferences.

Dissertation

List of Scientific Works

Consultant's Review

Foreign Consultant's Review

Conclusion of the Research Ethics Committee