Defense of the dissertation of Mukayev Daulet for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy (PhD) in the specialty «8D04102 - Economics»
L.N. Gumilyov Eurasian National University, a dissertation defense for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy (PhD) by Mukayev Daulet on the topic «Improving of mechanisms for providing affordable housing in the Republic of Kazakhstan» in the field of «8D04102 – Economics».
The dissertation was carried out at the «» of L.N. Gumilyov Eurasian National University.
The language of defense is kazakh
Reviewers:
Лукпанова Жанар Оралхановна - Candidate of Science, Associate Professor, Head of the cafedra
Кондыбаева Салтанат Канапияевна - Doctor of Philosophy (PhD), Associate Professor, docent
Temporary members of the Dissertation Committee:
Ильина Ирина Николаевна - Doctor of Science, Professor, professor
Рахметова Рахиля Умирзаковна - Doctor of Science, Professor
Притворова Татьяна Петровна - Doctor of Science, Professor
Монтаева Айнур Сарсенбековна
Байниязова Самал Марадовна - Master
Бирюков Валерий Викторович - Doctor of Science, Assistant Professor, Dean of the Faculty
Academic Advisors:
Shalbolova Urpash Zhaniyazovna – Doctor of Economic Sciences, Professor, L.N. Gumilyov Eurasian National University (Astana, Republic of Kazakhstan).
Justina Tanas - PhD, Professor at WSB Merito University in Poznan (Poznan, Poland).
The defense will take place on March 15, 2024, at 02:00 PM in the Dissertation Council for the training direction «8D041 – %!s(*string=0xc003c10370)» in the specialty «8D04102 – Economics» of L.N. Gumilyov Eurasian National University. The defense meeting is planned to be held online.
Link: https://clck.ru/38nGSf
Address: г. Астана, ул. Кажымукана, 11, ауд. №517 (УЛК) ЕНУ им. Л.Н. Гумилева в смешанном режиме (онлайн и оффлайн).
Abstract (English): ANNOTATION On dissertation thesis of Mukayev Daulet Toleutaevich "Improving of mechanisms for providing affordable housing in the Republic of Kazakhstan", submitted for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy (PhD) in the study program “8D04102 –Economics” Purpose of the dissertation thesis is the to provide sound proposals for improving the mechanisms for providing affordable housing based on an analysis of the implementation of housing programs in the Republic of Kazakhstan, housing construction and assessment of its accessibility. Research objectives are followings: - to investigate the content and essence of affordable housing with the justification of the author's interpretation of the concepts of "affordable housing" and "mechanisms for providing affordable housing", taking into account the specifics of housing programs in Kazakhstan; - to investigate methods for assessing housing affordability, based on the results of which to present the author's method for determining the housing affordability index using the tools of affordable housing mechanisms used in the Republic of Kazakhstan; - to conduct an analytical review of the mechanisms for providing affordable housing in various countries, to explore foreign housing markets, to determine housing affordability and to rank it by country; - to investigate the state of the housing stock of Kazakhstan, its replenishment by annual housing construction in the country as a whole and by its regions; - to analyze the construction of affordable (social) housing through budget investment, to give a structure for the introduction of public housing by regions of the country; - classify and justify the factors affecting housing affordability; - to provide a comprehensive scheme of mechanisms for providing affordable housing in the Republic of Kazakhstan with justification of the tools used, to investigate the degree of implementation of public housing programs; - to assess the affordability of housing when buying on commercial residential real estate markets and using preferential mortgage loans through the definition of indicators of accessibility indices; - to identify indicators of housing affordability and the degree of their implementation in Kazakhstan; to develop proposals for improving mechanisms for providing affordable housing in the Republic of Kazakhstan; – to build models of the parameters of the impact of mortgage lending on housing affordability when buying housing in commercial residential real estate markets and according to the conditions of public housing programs. Research methods. To conduct a real-time study, the state housing programs of the Republic of Kazakhstan, their directions for providing affordable housing for certain categories of the country's population, as well as regulatory official documents on building standards, were used. The information base of the study was reference materials and thematic collections of the Bureau of National Statistics of the Agency for Strategic Planning and Reforms of the Republic of Kazakhstan, materials from the official websites of akimats of regions, cities of the Republic of Kazakhstan, the Committee for Construction and Housing and Communal Services of the Ministry of Investment and Development of the Republic of Kazakhstan, the database of the “Humbeo” website - "On world housing prices (real estate)", materials and digital indicators published in official periodicals and online resources. The main economic methods of conducting research are statistical methods of analysis – observation, sampling, ranking, comparison, index method, graphical and tabular presentation of the analysis results. The methods of correlation and regression analysis are used for modeling. The methods of analysis and synthesis, a systematic approach, and a logical method are used. Main provisions submitted for defense: - the author's interpretation of the concepts of "affordable housing" and "mechanisms for providing affordable housing"; - a method (algorithm) for assessing housing affordability, taking into account the conditions specified in public housing programs; - factors influencing housing affordability; - the results of the assessment of housing affordability obtained by determining the indices according to the author's method; - proposals to improve the mechanisms for providing affordable housing in the Republic of Kazakhstan; - models of the parameters of the impact of mortgage lending on housing affordability. Description of the main results of the study. 1.The accessibility of housing and the mechanisms of its provision are investigated and substantiated: - the history of the emergence of the concept of "housing affordability" and the components of human rights are substantiated; - the element-by-element features of the definition of affordable housing are revealed; - based on the theoretical research conducted, the author's definition of the concept of "affordable housing" with the constituent elements of the author's interpretation is given. 2. The method of comprehensive assessment of housing affordability is presented: - the existing methods of assessing housing affordability have been investigated (according to the methodology of the “UN-Habitat Human Settlements Development Program”, according to the method of assessing housing affordability taking into account different household expenses, according to the method of constructing a quadrant model); - a comprehensive methodology for assessing housing affordability is proposed, taking into account the provisions of the state housing programs of Kazakhstan (the standard for providing housing for 1 person in the Republic of Kazakhstan, the number of people in 1 family in the Republic of Kazakhstan, the established maximum price per 1 square meter of housing according to housing programs, the provision of the maximum loan amount, the amount of the initial payment for using the loan for each type of housing program, additional state assistance, the period of use of the mortgage loan, the amount of the monthly payment for the use of the mortgage loan, the average amount of monthly family income, the cost of living in the Republic of Kazakhstan). 3. Based on the developed classification scheme of mechanisms for providing social housing in Kazakhstan (regulatory, financial, economic, socially oriented, regional), the factors influencing housing affordability are substantiated: resource, economic (housing cost and solvency of the population), demographic and migration, social, behavioral and worldview, environmental, political. 4. A direct assessment of housing affordability was carried out: - assessment of housing affordability based on the quadrant model; - the indices of accessibility of commercial and preferential housing have been determined and according to the method adjusted by the author; - housing affordability indices were calculated when buying an apartment on preferential loans, taking into account the conditions of housing programs in Kazakhstan according to the algorithm proposed by the author (calculations were carried out for all types of housing programs operating in the country for 2022 and 2023); - a comparison of housing affordability indices in the directions of the “Nurly Zher” Program in 2022 and 2023 with a family of 4 people is given 5. A scheme is presented to improve the mechanisms for providing affordable housing in the Republic of Kazakhstan: regulatory, financial, economic, socially oriented, regional. 6. Models of the parameters of the impact of mortgage lending on housing affordability have been developed: - in the commercial housing market of Kazakhstan as of 2022 and 2023; - according to the conditions of the state housing programs of Kazakhstan as of 2022 and 2023. Justification of the novelty and importance of the results obtained. Result-1 concretizes and deepens theoretical knowledge about housing affordability, types and categories of housing affordability, explores the views of scientists. The author's interpretation reveals the essence of the concept of "affordable housing", taking into account the contents of the state housing programs of the Republic of Kazakhstan to provide affordable housing for different segments of the population. The results obtained will be the basis for the implementation of new research in economics related to the provision of affordable housing for the population of the Republic of Kazakhstan. Result-2 The proposed comprehensive methodology for assessing housing affordability, taking into account the tools and mechanisms for providing affordable housing in the Republic of Kazakhstan, can be used to assess the state of the housing sector of the country's economy, contributes to the formation of new analytical and empirical results. Result-3 Reveals the influence of factors on the provision of affordable housing, based on the classification of tools used in Kazakhstan to provide affordable housing. A systematic grouping of factors affecting the provision of affordable housing in Kazakhstan is not found in the published results of other studies. Result 3 contributes to the choice of options for obtaining preferential loans for special categories of the country's population to buy an apartment. Result-4 Using the quadrant method, empirical results were obtained for assessing the availability of commercial housing for mortgage loans and concessional loans "Program "7-20-25" in the regions of Kazakhstan (as of 2021). According to the method adjusted by the author, the indices of accessibility of commercial and preferential housing in all regions of Kazakhstan as of January and July 2022 were calculated. According to the author's complex method, housing affordability indices were calculated as of 2022 for the following types of housing programs: "Bakytty otbasy" («Бақытты отбасы»), "Shanyrak" («Шаңырак»), "Nurly zher" («Нұрлы жер»), "Almaty zhastary" («Алматы жастары») and "Elorda zhastary" («Елорда жастары») "Askeri baspana" («Әскери баспана»), preferential mortgage "7-20-25" («7-20-25» жеңілдетілген ипотекасы), women's mortgage "Umai" («Ұмай» әйелдер ипотекасы). Result-5 Is aimed at further improvement of housing programs in Kazakhstan. Previously, the indicators of providing affordable housing to the population of Kazakhstan under the Nurly Zher program have been disclosed and indicators of improving housing and communal infrastructure in the Republic of Kazakhstan by 2026 have been critically substantiated. Proposals to improve the mechanisms for providing affordable housing in the Republic of Kazakhstan have been developed based on a critical approach to the application of existing tools for providing affordable housing and the real situation in Kazakhstan, as well as based on the results of studying the world practice of building and providing social housing in different countries. Some of the author's proposals will be submitted to the relevant state bodies for introduction into new directions and programs for providing affordable housing to the population of the Republic of Kazakhstan. Result-6 Two models of the parameters of the impact of mortgage lending on housing affordability have been developed: in the commercial housing market according to the conditions of the state housing programs of Kazakhstan as of 2022 and 2023. For the commercial housing market, preliminary calculations of the necessary indicators for all regions of Kazakhstan for 4 mortgage programs were carried out. For calculation in the commercial housing market, a sample of 80 options was adopted. For the calculation of public housing programs, a sample of 53 variants was carried out from the calculated observations. The purpose of developing multifactorial models of parameters affecting the availability of mortgage lending is to identify the optimal characteristics of factors such as income, housing cost, down payment amount, loan interest rate. A reduction in loan repayments while maintaining a positive cash flow according to the loan period is accepted as the resulting indicator. The compliance with directions of scientific development or government programs. Complies with the provisions of the Resolutions of the Government of the Republic of Kazakhstan dated December 31, 2019 No. 1054 On Approval of the State Program of Housing and Communal Development "Nurly Zher" for 2020-2025, dated September 23, 2022 No. 736 "On approval of the Concept of development of housing and communal infrastructure in the territory of the Republic of Kazakhstan for 2023-2029", a priority area of science development approved by the Higher Scientific- the Technical commission under the Government of the Republic of Kazakhstan "Intellectual potential of the country". Some results of the dissertation research have been accepted for use in practical activities by the “Otbasy Bank” organization. The description of the applicant's contribution to the preparation of each publication. The results of the study were reflected in 9 scientific papers, of which 1 article was published in the journal included in the international scientometric database Scopus (80th percentile, first author), 3 articles - in scientific publications recommended by the National Research Council of the Republic of Kazakhstan (where the first author – in 2 articles), 5 articles – in materials international scientific and practical conferences (where, sole - 3rd article). 1 certificate was obtained for objects of protected copyright (scientific work) on the topic of dissertation research. The author independently conducted research at all stages of the preparation of the dissertation work, since he has special qualifications and practical experience on the topic of the dissertation.
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