Defense of the dissertation of Ternov Nikolay Maximovich for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy (PhD) in the educational program «8D03106 - Political Science»

L.N. Gumilyov Eurasian National University, a dissertation defense for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy (PhD) by Ternov Nikolay Maximovich on the topic «State`s legitimacy during a pandemic: an assessment of contemporary trends» in the educational program «8D03106 – Political Science».

The dissertation was carried out at the Department of «Political Science» of L.N. Gumilyov Eurasian National University.

The language of defense is russian

Official reviewers:

Kanapyanov Timur Yerbolatovich – Doctor of Philosophy (PhD), Deputy General Director for International Cooperation at the Independent Agency for Accreditation and Rating. Specialty: "6D050200 – Political Science" (Astana, Republic of Kazakhstan);

Sarsenbayeva Zhanar Ganiyevna – Candidate of Political Science, Associate Professor at the Department of Social and Humanitarian Disciplines, Kazakh National Women’s Teacher Training University. Specialty: "23.00.02 – Political Institutions, Ethnopolitical Conflict Studies, National Interests, and Political Processes and Technologies" (Almaty, Republic of Kazakhstan).

Temporary members of the Dissertation Council:

Altybasarova Meyramgul Armiyanovna – Candidate of Political Science, Professor at the Department of Philosophy and Social Sciences, Toraighyrov University. Specialty: "23.00.02 – Political Institutions, Ethnopolitical Conflict Studies, National Interests, and Political Processes and Technologies" (Pavlodar, Republic of Kazakhstan);

Nugmanova Karlygash Zhandildinovna – Doctor of Political Science, Professor, President of the International Center for Geopolitical Forecasting "East-West," Director of the "Astana Association for Political Studies." Specialty: "23.00.02 – Political Institutions, Ethnopolitical Conflict Studies, National Interests, and Political Processes and Technologies" (Astana, Republic of Kazakhstan);

Simtikov Zhomart Kudaybergenovich – Doctor of Political Science, Professor, Head of the Department of Political Science and Socio-Philosophical Disciplines at the Institute of History and Law, Abai Kazakh National Pedagogical University. Specialty: "23.00.02 – Political Institutions, Ethnopolitical Conflict Studies, National and Political Processes and Technologies" (Almaty, Republic of Kazakhstan).

Scientific consultants:

Nurtazina Roza Autalipovna – Doctor of Political Science, Professor at the Department of Political Science, L.N. Gumilyov Eurasian National University (Astana, Republic of Kazakhstan);

Lanko Dmitry Alexandrovich – Candidate of Political Science, Associate Professor at the Department of European Studies, Saint Petersburg State University (Saint Petersburg, Russian Federation).

The defense will take place on January 15, 2025, at 12:00 PM in the Dissertation Council for the training direction «8D031 – Social sciences» in the educational program «8D03106 – Political Science» of L.N. Gumilyov Eurasian National University. Conducting a meeting of the dissertation council in a mixed (offline and online) format.

Link: https://us06web.zoom.us/j/8114174324?pwd=dVhvaFdrUm9hRll6eTBsclhybUtvZz09

Meeting ID: 811 4174 324

Access Code: DC9hpA

Address: Astana, A. Yanushkevich Street, 6, Building 4 of L.N. Gumilyov Eurasian National University, Room 112.

Abstract (English): the dissertation work Ternov Nikolay Maximovich on the topic “State`s legitimacy during a pandemic: an assessment of contemporary trends”, submitted for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy ( PhD ) in the educational program of doctoral student in the specialty “8D03106-Political Science” Relevance of the Research Topic In contemporary academic discourse, the issue of legitimacy stands as one of the most widely debated topics. The global dynamics of political processes demonstrate that legitimacy serves as a fundamental predictor of policy implementation and is a key factor in ensuring stable dialogue between the state and society. A new stage in the discussion of legality and the public perception of anti-crisis policies implemented by state authorities emerged during the COVID-19 pandemic, driven by several factors. Firstly, as a "non-classical" threat (unlike natural disasters, terrorism, etc.), the spread of COVID-19 compelled states to rethink previously established strategies. Confronted for the first time with a biological threat of this magnitude, governments had to devise original countermeasures without the benefit of historical precedent, operating in a context of uncertainty. Secondly, this uncertainty inevitably impacted the effectiveness and legitimacy of political processes as a whole, fostering heated societal debates over the legitimacy of anti-COVID measures. Thirdly, due to the protracted nature of the pandemic, anti-COVID policies were subject to constant adjustments, which the public was not always prepared for. The loss of "pre-pandemic" stability, induced by restrictive measures, exerted significant pressure on the perceived image of governmental authority and the state. The relevance of this research lies in two key propositions. The first is that legitimacy is not examined as a binary concept—“presence” or “absence”—but rather as a continuum characterized by various governmental actions. Classical approaches focusing on legality and modern perspectives emphasizing perceived legitimacy do not fully capture the complexity of the pandemic context. The second proposition underscores the challenges of measuring legitimacy due to the unique experiences of citizens. Personal factors, value orientations, and interaction strategies contribute to the complexity of assessing perceptions of authority, thereby complicating governmental decision-making processes. This study employs innovative Data Science methods to evaluate public opinion expressed on social media. Event-specific opinions allow for an assessment of public perception, identification of arguments, and aggregation of the experiences of a large number of users. In the context of the Republic of Kazakhstan, this study evaluates the legitimacy of state authority during the pandemic, the effectiveness of COVID-19 countermeasures, the functioning of communication channels, and the implementation of the “Listening State” concept. The “Listening State” concept, declared by President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, aims to strengthen trust between society and the state, thereby fostering a sense of trust in the government among Kazakhstan’s citizens. The COVID-19 pandemic serves as a stress test, enabling an evaluation of state legitimacy across various dimensions: legality, effectiveness, and responsiveness to the needs and expectations of citizens. Therefore, employing Data Science methods provides a comprehensive assessment of legitimacy, accounting for a wide range of factors through the analysis of public opinion. The societal and political practices of 2020 are of particular interest in examining the complex issues surrounding legitimacy and state policy. During this period, a range of trends emerged that shaped the process of building state legitimacy in modern Kazakhstan. The relevance of this study is defined by the following points: 1. The lack of experience in combating the COVID-19 pandemic forced the state to operate under conditions of complete uncertainty, pursuing a complex set of objectives—from epidemiological (reducing infection rates) to political (maintaining public stability and legitimacy of measures). 2. The issue of maintaining legitimacy during the pandemic is heightened due to significant transformations in political and other spheres under emergency conditions. 3. Limited resources and restricted political maneuverability influence the forms and methods of sustaining governmental legitimacy. 4. Analyzing public perceptions of authority provides a foundation for implementing policies under extraordinary circumstances. The research conceptualizes legitimacy as both a discursive and performative phenomenon. Accordingly, the primary source of analysis is public opinion data, which enables the application of Data Science methods and draws conclusions about the state of governmental authority and policy aspects under emergency conditions. The aim of this study is to analyze the perceived legitimacy of state authority in the Republic of Kazakhstan. From both theoretical and practical perspectives, this analysis serves as a basis for the further implementation of public policy within the framework of the “Listening State.” Based on the stated aim, the following objectives were formulated: - To explore the theoretical foundations of the concept of legitimacy; - To analyze the main approaches to measuring legitimacy indicators; - To identify the key problems and challenges of legitimacy during the COVID-19 pandemic; - To systematize the experiences of states in ensuring the legitimacy of authority and policy; - To study the main determinants of public opinion formation during the pandemic; - To analyze public opinion regarding the legitimacy of specific restrictive measures. The Object and Subject of the Study The object of this study is the legitimacy of state authority during the crisis of the COVID-19 pandemic. The subject of the study encompasses the key aspects of the implementation of state policy aimed at countering the spread of COVID-19, as well as its justification and perception by the Kazakhstani society. The society, based on its strategies and life trajectories, forms an understanding of legitimacy concerning state authority. Scientific Novelty of the Results The dissertation provides an original contribution to the comprehensive study of the concept of state legitimacy as a performative process constructed "here and now" in the crisis conditions of the Republic of Kazakhstan. - The effectiveness of Data Science methods in studying legitimacy has been tested. - Key approaches to understanding legitimacy in the 21st century have been identified and described. In this study, legitimacy is understood as a continuously constructed process in two directions: from the state and from society. - An analysis of the key legitimacy indicators was conducted, evaluating them within the framework of synergy, addressing the legal and sociological aspects of the state’s overall policy. - The primary challenges to legitimacy during the COVID-19 pandemic were examined. - The experiences of over 20 countries were analyzed concerning the formation and perception of restrictive measures, as well as the main determinants of their acceptance or rejection by society. - The main factors influencing public opinion during the pandemic were highlighted, confirming key hypotheses about the impact of the media coverage of state policies on the process of legitimizing authority. - Public opinion dynamics regarding each restrictive measure were studied. A significant contribution was made through the classification of the perception of restrictive measures based on thematic, semantic, and emotional proximity. Methodological and Theoretical Foundations of the Dissertation A range of methodological approaches was employed to explore the issue of legitimacy during the COVID-19 pandemic. The historical method facilitated the examination of past governmental experiences in dealing with key threats and crises. Within this method, the primary strategies and aspects of state apparatus operations to counter threats and implement anti-crisis strategies were analyzed. The comparative analysis method was applied to examine legitimacy issues, motivated by the unique experiences of different countries in combating the pandemic, as well as a wide range of social, political, and other characteristics unique to each country. The situational analysis method was also employed to systematize theoretical and empirical data, allowing for the grouping of both theoretical aspects of legitimacy and the practical situation of legitimizing authority. The logical analysis method enabled the integration of various aspects of the studied issue into a unified system. The institutional method was utilized in studying the mechanisms of anti-COVID policy implementation. For data analysis and public opinion modeling, a statistical method was applied, aiding in the identification of key determinants of public opinion during the pandemic. This included the use of Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) regression, ordinal regression, and mathematical methods such as time series smoothing. Data Science/Big Data Methods in the Study Data Science and Big Data methods were employed for data collection, grouping, and processing. A significant contribution to the analysis was made by the neural network method, which not only facilitated the identification of key themes from the data but also highlighted user trajectories and argumentation. This method was closely integrated with the classical content analysis approach, which was conducted in accordance with the linguistic characteristics of the material. The pivotal role in the study was assigned to Data Science and Big Data methodologies. For the first time in the context of research in the Republic of Kazakhstan, the opinion-mining method was applied, which involved the collection of over 470,000 user comments from social media. This volume of data meets Big Data criteria and is representative, enabling the identification of specific features of perceived legitimacy during the studied period. The author developed a set of statistical and political science methods. On the one hand, hypotheses regarding the impact of epidemiological factors on public opinion were formulated, some of which were confirmed using regression methods. On the other hand, through neural networks and natural language processing (NLP) methods, not only were key content analysis-related terms identified, but entire topics were grouped based on the collected 470,000 citizen comments. The study adopted a systemic approach to examine legitimacy as a self-regulating and performative system, whose key elements include the state, public policy, societal reception, and individuals' opinions on governmental actions. This methodological framework enables the comprehensive achievement of the study's objectives and the realization of its overarching goal. Given the aforementioned methods, this arsenal provides an opportunity to academically identify the main trends and challenges of legitimacy during the COVID-19 pandemic. Thus, these methods are essential for: 1. Understanding the issue of legitimacy and its key components. 2. Evaluating legitimacy indicators during the COVID-19 pandemic. 3. Identifying the main challenges and threats to the legitimacy of authority during the pandemic, taking into account citizens’ informational engagement in political discourse in the Republic of Kazakhstan. Practical Significance of the Study The practical and theoretical significance of the results lies in their applicability for addressing scientific and practical tasks of the state authorities of the Republic of Kazakhstan. Specifically, the key provisions and scientific findings can be utilized by: 1. Specialists in internal government agencies of Kazakhstan, particularly those focusing on epidemiological and social policies, for planning and analytical purposes. 2. Researchers conducting further studies on Kazakhstan’s experience during the COVID-19 pandemic, as well as analyzing key trends in the formation and construction of legitimacy in Central Asia and globally. 3. Educational institutions, for the development of teaching aids and the delivery of courses on the Central Asian region and Kazakhstan in particular. Provisions for Defense 1. The synthesis of classical “procedural” and “empirical” approaches resolves the “legal” versus “social” dichotomy. The author’s analysis demonstrates that the primary challenge for a sovereign state is not merely in exercising full authority and establishing laws but in maintaining order within a defined territory and fostering societal loyalty. 2. Measuring legitimacy involves analyzing the legitimacy of elements constituting the concept of power. The classical normative approach, which equates legitimate authority with governmental legality, fails to account for the complexity of societal reactions to government policies. The author’s framework deconstructs the concept of "power" into its components (power – institutions – indicators – norms – political community), enabling an assessment of the legitimacy of each element. 3. The legitimacy of state authority faced significant challenges during the pandemic due to restrictive measures and overall policy functioning. The author identifies two primary factors negatively impacting legitimacy: the sharp increase in pressure on the healthcare system, leading to a cascade of crises in state planning. Weaknesses in scientific expertise, policy implementation, and societal engagement, which hampered the legitimation process. These challenges escalated the healthcare crisis into a political one, reflected in the public's rejection or disregard of certain measures, complicating decision-making processes. 4. The author's analysis of foreign countries’ experiences reveals that there is no universally correct strategy for legitimization during a pandemic, nor for combating COVID-19. A significant decline in trust toward key elements of authority is observed across all studied countries, highlighting the difficulties in constructing legitimacy during the pandemic. These challenges are evident even in specific cases such as adherence to hygiene measures, school closures, and restrictions on mass gatherings. 5. In the context of increasing information engagement among Kazakhstani citizens, the perception of the political and epidemiological situation largely depended on the state’s ability to control infection and mortality rates. The author’s regression analysis demonstrates that public opinion played a significant role: during the initial months, legitimacy rose, reflecting a “rally around the flag” effect, but later declined—a trend observed in other countries as well. 6. Content analysis results indicate that citizens deemed legitimate not only those measures that reduced infection and mortality rates but also the personal image of politicians and the actions of government representatives. Users’ arguments were primarily based on personal experiences and observations of the implementation of measures, reflecting a wide range of sentiments—from full acceptance to outright rejection. Approval of Research Results The main findings of the dissertation were presented in three publications by the author, including: - Two articles in scientific journals indexed in the Scopus database (Russian Politics, Q1, 91st percentile; Global Perspectives, Q2, 61st percentile). - Two articles in scientific journals recommended by the Committee for Control in the Sphere of Education and Science of the Ministry of Education and Science of the Republic of Kazakhstan. - One article in the proceedings of international scientific and practical conferences. Structure of the Dissertation The structure of the dissertation is determined by its objectives and tasks. The work consists of an introduction, three chapters (each with two sections), a conclusion, a list of references, and appendices.

Dissertation

List of Scientific Works

Consultant's Review

Foreign Consultant's Review

Conclusion of the Research Ethics Committee

Official Reviewer's Review

Official Reviewer's Review